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        涪陵榨菜:渠道库存回归良性,关注业绩拐点

        2019年09月25日 17:00:06字号:T|T

            多措施加速去库存,目前库存处于良性。19年公司的渠道库存压力较大,尤其是4月份进入库存的高峰期,公司积极采取措施去库存。一方面从Q2加大对渠道和终端的费用投放力度,同时加强渠道下沉;另一方面提高返利频次,由季返改为月返,同时放宽授信额度,对部分市场的部分经销商采取滚动赊销政策,以提高经销商的拿货积极性;此外,公司在Q3加强对经销商的库存管理,按需发货,通过控货的方式保障动销处于良性。目前公司的渠道库存处于正常水平,去库存的效果逐渐显现。Q3公司的重点仍在于去库存,加上宏观经济下行,终端需求疲软,预计Q3收入大概率与去年同期基本持平。

            Q3毛利率预计稳中有升,销售费用投入放缓。2Q19整体毛利率为58.9%,同增0.4pct,一方面虽年初提价、二季度降增值税对毛利率起到正面贡献作用,但折旧摊销等固定成本增加,部分程度抵消了提价效应;另一方面虽然19年青菜头采购价格较18年低10%左右,但Q2使用的原材料大部分为18年所采购,因此原料价格下降对Q2毛利率的贡献尚未体现;而Q3使用19年青菜头,毛利率大概率稳中有升。Q3公司对渠道的费用投放节奏较Q2有所放缓,考虑到销售人员增加、“运动补盐”品牌推广活动等,预计销售费用率较去年同期持平或略有提升。

            19年进入经营调整期,渠道下沉+品类推广有望成突破口。公司经历了2018年的提价与成本红利后,继续维持高增长的难度加大,再加上终端需求疲软,19年进入经营调整期,主要从渠道和品类两方面进行。1)渠道下沉:对县级市场进行下沉,同时进行办事处裂变,加强对经销商的管理与服务;在一线城市,公司通过开拓外卖平台、开发榨菜与餐厅菜系的搭配等拓展餐饮渠道以及团购、新零售等,二线城市主要依靠扶持大商。2)品类独立推广:公司的榨菜产品进入存量时代,实现爆发式增长的难度较大,未来要依赖于品类扩张实现业绩增量。今年推出乌江品牌的萝卜、泡菜、下饭菜,为新增的泡菜产能释放做好铺垫;同时对脆口榨菜、脆口萝卜、下饭菜等重点产品独立推广,由商超逐步走向流通,加大该品类的下沉。

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