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        忆苹果概念“峥嵘岁月” 寻华为产业链“十年十倍”的大牛股

        2019年09月19日 16:27:10字号:T|T

            苹果产业链的过去,很可能会成为华为产业链的未来。

            9月19日,华为Mate30系列将在德国慕尼黑发布,不仅引发消费者关注,也让众多投资者将目光瞄准了华为产业链。昔日苹果公司的崛起带动了全产业链的飞黄腾达,一些A股公司也借此在过去十年里成为“十倍”大牛股。如今华为的蓬勃发展不仅让人浮想联翩,华为产业链是否也能复制出类似的市场行情,诞生一批新的大牛股?

            在业内人士看来,目前华为供应商中涵盖了数十家电子、通信、计算机领域的A股上市公司,华为三大业务板块相应的产业链,都具备巨大的投资机会。

            可借鉴苹果产业链投资路径

            至今在莱宝高科(8.650, 0.41, 4.98%)(行情002106)的股吧中,还有网友在怀念十年前那一轮波澜壮阔的个股行情。曾经头戴A股触摸屏龙头光环,因切入苹果产业链,莱宝高科股价曾在约两年的时间涨了16倍。

            莱宝高科并不是个案,过去十年,苹果产业链一度成为A股市场科技领域持续时间最长、影响范围最大的投资主题之一,万亿美元市值的苹果孕育了整个产业链的飞黄腾达,而仅仅A股上就有数十家公司借此成为“十年十倍”的大牛股。

            莱宝高科股吧中有位网友说道:“4G的时候你涨了10多倍,5G来了能涨多少?”而谈到5G,则又绕不开华为。研究表示,缺乏创新元素、没有5G功能的现实,让苹果以及其产业链的未来前景蒙上了一层阴影。风水轮流转。4G时代看苹果,5G时代看华为。

            有观点认为,后苹果时代,华为产业链有望成为A股市场未来5年-10年最大的投资机遇。面对如此机遇,如何投资,不妨从当初苹果产业链的演绎路径找到答案。

            根据苹果相关概念股走势,其产业链投资路径大致分为三个阶段:2008年下半年至2011年上半年、2012年下半年至2015年年中、2015年下半年至2017年年底。每个阶段基本是2-3年,而股价和业绩的相关性也越来越高。

            研究表示,第一阶段是全行业普涨。投资对象主要受估值推动,标的稀缺度、与概念相关度等因素直接决定了对资金的吸引程度。在这期间,大部分公司均有5倍以上涨幅。

            在第二阶段,资金开始对标的基本面进行挖掘,股价与业绩相关度开始提升,赛道短期没有天花板压制的公司更易脱颖而出。

            到了第三阶段,受行业景气度下行影响,边际资金参与度大幅下降,个股定价趋于理性,基本与业绩保持同步,业绩持续释放的公司更受资本市场青睐,最终能走出独立行情。如顺络电子(24.150, 0.70, 2.99%)(行情002138)、立讯精密(27.100, 0.10, 0.37%)(行情002475)等个股,在产业景气度下行、大部分标的业绩下滑、股价也大幅回落的情况下,依然能保持业绩稳定增长,因此受到资金青睐,成为这一阶段的最大赢家。

            十倍股已露尖尖角

            目前华为供应商体系涵盖了电子、通信、计算机等行业,中外供应商共149家。在这其中,软件与服务供应商数量最多,有21家,半导体设计行业的供应商17家,代工、晶圆制造等生产服务的供应商14家,安防设备等电子装备供应商10家,而华为主营业务涉及的核心元器件如存储器、连接器、线缆的供应商数量也分别为9家。

            华为供应商中不乏众多A股上市公司。从具体子行业来看,在硬件领域,华为供应商中包括立讯精密、中航光电(41.730, 0.32, 0.77%)(行情002179)、生益科技(28.090, 0.88, 3.23%)(行情600183)、沪电股份(26.970, 0.45, 1.70%)(行情002463)、兴森科技(7.840, 0.16, 2.08%)(行情002436)、铭普光磁(32.420, 0.23, 0.71%)(行情002902)等;在通信产业链上,中天科技(9.030, 0.21, 2.38%)(行情600522)、长飞光纤(35.780, 0.81, 2.32%)(行情601869)、亨通光电(16.690, 0.88, 5.57%)(行情600487)、华工科技(20.500, 0.28, 1.38%)(行情000988)、武汉凡谷(23.370, -2.20, -8.60%)(维权)(行情002194)、中光防雷(14.030, 0.18, 1.30%)(行情300414)等公司为华为提供包括光缆、光模块、基站射频器件、手机关键材料等产品;在华为营收规模最大的业务消费电子板块,供应商中有捷荣技术(12.800, 0.82, 6.84%)(行情002855)、长盈精密(15.580, -0.15, -0.95%)(行情300115)、欧菲光(11.600, 0.29, 2.56%)(行情002456)、京东方A(3.950, 0.06, 1.54%)(行情000725)、深天马A(15.270, 0.45, 3.04%)(行情000050)、蓝思科技(11.190, -0.03, -0.27%)(行情300433)等;还有诸如光弘科技(30.440, 0.68, 2.28%)(行情300735)、剑桥科技(29.310, 0.26, 0.90%)(行情603083)、博彦科技(9.410, 0.12, 1.29%)(行情002649)、华测检测(12.750, 0.15, 1.19%)(行情300012)、联得装备(28.650, 0.97, 3.50%)(行情300545)、润建股份(29.480, 0.02, 0.07%)(行情002929)等为华为提供生产制造、电子装备、第三方检测服务等。

            根据华为的营业成本和资本开支,华为的供应商年市场规模约5000亿元。有27家A股上市公司来自华为的收入占公司营收比重超过10%,武汉凡谷、新亚制程(9.690, 0.88, 9.99%)(行情002388)、捷荣技术、卓翼科技(8.840, 0.12, 1.38%)(行情002369)、银宝山新(8.970, 0.82, 10.06%)(行情002786)、剑桥科技、博创科技(48.370, 0.12, 0.25%)(行情300548)来自华为的收入均超过营收的30%。

            部分华为供应商或概念股年内股价已出现明显上涨,一些“两倍股”、“三倍股”已浮出水面。武汉凡谷9月18日股价收于25.57元,较年初上涨285.09%;沪电股份9月5日盘中股价创下28.58元的历史新高,截至9月18日公司股价年内已上涨267.82%;生益科技9月18日股价收于27.21元/股,较今年年初上涨178.79%。

            从整体市场行情看,今年华为概念指数也出现明显上涨。截至9月18日收盘,华为概念指数报1169.22点,上涨4.76点,涨幅0.41%,较今年年初的805.63点上涨45.13%。

            在华为消费者业务、运营商业务、企业业务三大业务板块相应的产业链,都具备巨大的投资机会,相关产业链上下游都会充分受益,已经进入了华为核心供应商的企业受益确定性更强,而还没进入的龙头公司有很强的进口替代逻辑,长期来看也有望受益。

            把握科技主线行情

            过去几个月,除大消费、医药板块维持良好的涨幅外,科技板块获得了显著的上涨。Wind数据显示,近60个交易日,申万一级电子、计算机行业涨幅分别为27.51%、9.73%,分列行业涨幅第一位和第三位。

            对于科技行情,国泰君安证券表示,今年是5G建设元年,往后看2020年下半年到2021年是相关基建建设高峰,同时下半年开始,各手机大厂开始发布5G旗舰机型。所以可以预见的是,未来几年,最大的风口就是相关的硬科技板块。

            未来市场会围绕整个科技板块进行反复进攻。相关领域引发的赚钱效应,会让资金加速进场,推升国内科技升级和自我可控的节奏。总的来看,后续持续看好大科技板块,背后的核心逻辑如下:第一,外部因素影响下,科技企业开始加快自主核心零部件替换;第二,2019年以来核心科技股赚钱效应明显,5G加速行情催化;第三,当前公募基金对科技股的配置占比创近6年新低,后续存在提升空间。进入5G时代后,以华为为首的国内自主品牌企业迎来弯道超车机会。

            对于华为产业链的投资,安信证券表示,5G是矛,国产化是盾。华为已经成为国内科技产业的扛旗者,其指明的两大方向——5G和国产化也将成为未来TMT板块重要的主线。

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