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        机械行业:三季报发布时点临近,精选超预期标的

        2019年09月30日 15:20:48字号:T|T

            三季报发布时点临近,精选超预期标的。从已发布三季度业绩预告的情况看,我们重点覆盖的康力电梯、雪人股份、广日股份、应流股份等预计三季报将有较大幅度增长。

            其他尚未发布业绩预告的公司,我们预计:

            (1)三季度挖机销量淡季不淡,表现出较强韧性;后端混凝土、起重机械等预计也保持较高景气度;同时龙头厂商市占率明显提升,收入端增速高于行业。资产负债表端修复,业绩弹性逐渐释放,预计三季度各工程机械厂商业绩将继续保持强劲增长态势,重点推荐龙头整机厂商三一重工、徐工机械、中联重科,核心部件厂商恒立液压。

            (2)能源安全战略不断催化,国内页岩气开发项目落地超预期,国内各油服设备厂商订单饱满,三季报预计将继续保持景气向上。重点推荐杰瑞股份。

            (3)明年5G手机量产,会有一波自动化设备投入,5G基站的自动化需求已经显现;5G手机的自动化需求将很快落地,不仅仅是通讯模块的相关检测设备,也包括与结构件、屏幕盖板相关的加工装备设备和工业机器人。从订单跟踪情况看,预计3C自动化设备厂商三季报有望环比改善,建议重点关注科瑞技术、拓斯达、埃斯顿、快克股份、锐科激光等。

            (4)设备服务标的企业经营迎来重要拐点,华测检测精细化管理战略持续推进,预计三季报持续保持较好态势。建设机械资产减值风险下降、塔机租赁量价齐升,三季报有望继续超预期。重点推荐华测检测、建设机械。

            风险提示

            宏观经济不及预期,竞争加剧等风险。

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