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        军工行业:阅兵行情有望持续,半年报显示基本面持续改善,关注电科集团改革进程

        2019年09月24日 16:42:54字号:T|T

            行情回顾

            近两周(2019年08月26日-2019年09月08日),上证综指上涨3.53%、深证成指上涨4.92%、中小板指上涨5.33%、创业板指上涨4.75%,中证军工上涨10.24%。中信军工上涨9.98%,在29个行业中涨幅排名第二。中信军工细分板中,航天航空上涨11.82%,兵器兵装上涨9.76%,其他军工上涨7.89%。

            行业观点

            阅兵行情有望持续:近期军工板块表现亮眼,我们认为主要是国庆阅兵的主题催化,未来我们认为在整体贸易战背景下,军工作为大国博弈、自主可控的重点领域,关注度较高。军工阅兵行情有望持续。

            军工板块半年报验证行业高景气度:根据我们统计的79家军工企业来看,2019年上半年军工板块整体实现营业收入1724.97亿,同比增长7.58%;归母净利润96.76亿,同比增长24.18%;毛利率为17.82%,同比增加0.44个百分点;期间费用率为12.24%,同比增加0.52个百分点;净利率为5.88%,同比增加1.05个百分点。整体仍保持增长趋势。其中实现收入增长的共57家企业,占比72%;实现归母净利润增长的共57家企业,占比72%。同比增速有所放缓,但整体仍保持在较高水平,盈利能力有所改善,进而带动ROE提升,军工板块2019年上半年ROE为2.43%,同比增加0.23个百分点。ROE提升的主要原因是盈利能力的改善,2019年上半年军工板块净利率为5.88%,同比增加1.05个百分点;总资产周转率未出现明显变化,稳定在0.20左右,而权益乘数则呈下降趋势。

            关注电科集团改革进程:近日中国电科集团下属的四创电子、国睿科技和华东电脑分别发布公告,内容如下:

            四创电子:中电科同意将三十八所持有的四创电子45.67%(计72,700,012股)的国有股份全部无偿划转至中电博微持有;

            国睿科技:重组涉及的资产评估报告已经完成国务院国资委备案;

            华东电脑:中电科集团同意以三十二所及电科软信为基础,以电科软信为平台公司组建电科信息子集团,电科信息子集团以“引领计算创新,打造自主可控关键软硬件产品、先进计算平台,实现新一代关键信息基础设施的安全可控和创新发展”为主责,以自主可控、安全可信的关键软硬件产品与平台、新一代信息基础设施建设与运营服务为主业;中电科集团同意将三十二所所持下属控股上市公司华东电脑19.26%国有股份无偿划转至电科信息子集团持有,华东电脑调整作为电科信息子集团未来经营发展资本运作的板块上市平台。

            我们认为中电科集团下属三家上市公司密集发布公告,分别涉及股权划转、重大资产重组以及子集团建立,表明中国电科的改革推进有加速迹象,未来包括继续推进子集团战略、军工资产证券化以及股权激励方面或将不断落地,建议重点关注。

            投资建议

            维持三条主线推荐: 主线一:装备龙头推荐中直股份和中航沈飞,新增推荐中航飞机;

            主线二:推荐增长确定性较高、估值和增速匹配的标的:航天电器、菲利华、火炬电子、中航光电、中航电测,重点关注振华科技等;

            主线三:资产证券化重点推荐四创电子,新增推荐中航机电。

            风险提示:装备列装速度低于预期、改革进程低于预期。

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