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        建筑装饰行业:降准急速响应逆周期加码,专项债作资本金受鼓励

        2019年09月23日 16:31:54字号:T|T

            事项:1)中国人民银行决定于2019年9月16日全面下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点(不含财务公司、金融租赁公司和汽车金融公司)。再额外对仅在省级行政区域内经营的城市商业银行定向下调存款准备金率1个百分点,于10月15日和11月15日分两次实施到位,每次下调0.5个百分点。2)9月6日上午,财政部召开发布会,围绕“加快发行使用地方政府专项债券、更好发挥有效投资拉动作用”做相关介绍,并回答媒体提问。

            降准预计释放长期资金9000亿元,逆周期调节政策加码。9月4日国常会要求“加快落实降低实际利率水平的措施,及时运用普遍降准和定向降准等政策工具”。人民银行在2天后即降准,显示了政策执行的高效和紧迫,逆周期调节力度进一步加强。根据有关负责人介绍,此次降准释放长期资金约9000亿元,其中全面降准释放资金约8000亿元,定向降准释放资金约1000亿元,将有效增加金融机构支持实体经济的资金来源,还降低银行资金成本每年约150亿元,通过银行传导可以降低贷款实际利率。另外在二季度政策全面收紧地产融资渠道背景下,此次降息释放资金有望更大比例流向基建等领域。资金的补充以及融资成本下降,将利好建筑企业加速推进在手项目。

            财政部明确专项债作资本金范围扩大,并鼓励地方尽量多安排。财政部在会上明确,专项债作资本金项目具体由现有4个领域项目进一步扩大为10个领域项目:铁路、收费公路、干线机场、内河航电枢纽和港口、城市停车场、天然气管网和储气设施、城乡电网、水利、城镇污水垃圾处理、供水。并鼓励地方在符合政策规定和防控风险的基础上,尽量多安排专项债券用于项目资本金,以省为单位,专项债资金用于项目资本金的规模占该省份专项债规模的比例可为20%左右。我们认为明晰相关要求将促专项债作资本金使用更为通畅,尽可能大的发挥专项债的示范和杠杆作用。

            限制专项债用于土储及房地产相关项目,将极大扩充基建投向比例。国常会提出专项债被限制用于土地储备及房地产相关项目,如果执行,则未来专项债投向中基建项目占比有望从目前约33%提升至趋于100%,相当于扩充两倍(当然也要取决于是否有足够的基建项目)。我们认为它体现了严控房地产、支持实体经济的政策要求,预计对扩充基建资金来源有实质促进作用。

            行业观点与投资建议:我们本周初连续外发报告,强调逆周期调节力度有望加码。在当前中美贸易关系不确定性仍高、国内房地产不作为经济刺激手段、PMI数据走弱背景下,基建是当前稳增长为数不多的发力方向。从中报情况看,建筑龙头增长势头仍强,估值处于历史低位,在稳增长目标下,不排除未来政策进一步发力基建的可能性。重点推荐低估值建筑央企中国铁建(6.7XPE,0.86XPB)、中国交建(0.92XPB)、中国中铁(0.84XPB)、中国建筑(5.7XPE,1.0XPB)、中国中冶(0.82XPB,镍矿资源丰富)、葛洲坝(1.04XPB)等,兼具成长性和现金流价值的设计龙头苏交科、中设集团,估值已极低的PPP龙头龙元建设(1.1XPB)。

            风险提示:政策执行效果低于预期风险;地方投资需求持续不足风险。

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