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        食品饮料行业:白酒行业强者更强,短期成交价格合理波动

        2019年09月20日 16:39:00字号:T|T

            1、贵州茅台需求依旧旺盛,批价回落符合预期,利于稳健发展。上周二北京风传茅台终端成交价大幅下降近500元,引发投资者对高端白酒需求的担忧,板块应声大跌。但通过了解,成交价格大幅度下降实为个例。上周普飞价格普遍回落100-200元不等,符合我们此前预期,并非需求问题,而是厂家近期抑价措施开始见效,有利于公司长期发展。2、川酒调研验证逻辑,马太效应加剧。上周,我们对五粮液、泸州老窖和水井坊进行了调研,整体来看,白酒龙头公司强者更强,需求较为稳定,业绩仍然保持较高增长。

            投资建议:目前大部分名优白酒公司销售稳健,库存维持正常水平,预计绝大多数核心龙头公司2019年能实现量价齐升,高端白酒一批价格短期因放量有所下降属于正常波动,无需过度担忧。此次川酒调研验证了我们此前的观点,一是白酒行业仍在L型底部,马太效应不断加剧,强者更强,呈挤压式增长;二是行业将向着品牌价值较高或品牌升级可持续的公司集中。总体来说,在中国经济仍有下行压力的背景下,优质白酒公司的业绩确定性较强。建议关注茅五泸、顺鑫、汾酒、古井。大众品方面,建议继续关注业绩稳定的龙头伊利、海天、中炬以及业绩出现拐点的青啤。

            风险提示:食品安全问题;公司经营业绩低于预期;人民币汇率波动风险;国内利率上调风险;国内宏观经济数据不及预期;中美贸易摩擦加剧;国内外资本市场较大波动等系统性风险。

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