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        和往年楼市“金九银十”相比,今年有点冷

        2019年09月19日 16:49:11字号:T|T

            和往年楼市“金九银十”相比,今年有点冷。上海易居房地产研究院近日发布报告显示,8月,全国40个典型城市新建商品住宅成交面积环比下降9%,同比下降3%。业内人士称,当前楼市预期已经转变,预计“金九银十”降价促销将增多,随着因城施策的调控措施逐步落实,楼市将延续平稳态势。

            在上海市奉贤区地铁5号线附近一处楼盘,销售人员说,和往年“金九银十”相比,今年有些冷清。“一上午大概有四五组看房的,和平时没什么太大区别。”该楼盘销售人员说。

            上海易居房地产研究院报告显示,8月,40个典型城市新建商品住宅成交面积环比下降9%,同比下降3%。8月,4个一线城市成交面积环比下降19%,同比下降16%;18个二线城市成交面积环比下降10%,同比增长6%;18个三四线城市成交面积环比下降4%,同比下降17%。

            在市场预期整体走低的情况下,部分房地产企业加大营销力度,并尝试降价促销。在恒大官方APP恒房通上,看到“升级新品可享9折优惠”“清尾最高享8折优惠”“一次性付款可享92折”等宣传标语。

            易居研究院研究员沈昕表示,接下去几个月,部分房企由于资金面紧张,会加大推盘力度,打折促销现象也会增多。在中央明确表态下,楼市预期已发生转变,房企推盘量可能大幅增加,但成交量难以明显增长。

            沈昕说,分城市类别看,一线城市由于连续两年成交量低迷,已经企稳反弹,但难以持续增长;东部和中部二线城市后续还有可能继续降温,其他地区的成交量则面临较大下降风险。

            8月25日,中国人民银行发布《关于新发放商业性个人住房贷款利率调整的公告》,确认房贷利率与贷款市场报价利率(LPR)挂钩。央行明确,自10月8日起,新发放商业性个人住房贷款利率以最近一个月相应期限的LPR为定价基准加点形成。

            房贷利率换锚后,个人住房贷款利率除了要参考LPR,同时受央行的房贷利率底线、当地LPR加点下限、银行浮动加点等三方面因素制约。据悉,目前房贷利率“换锚”工作平稳有序,地方和金融机构正稳步推进明确LPR加点数值、系统升级改造等工作。

            目前,北京已经明确,首套房利率在LPR的基础上上浮不低于55个基点,二套房不低于105个基点。按照8月20日5年期以上LPR计算,北京地区个人房贷浮动下限为5.4%,二套房浮动下限为5.9%。

            融360大数据研究院监测数据显示,今年8月份,上海首套房贷款平均利率为4.84%,低于全国5.47%的平均水平。此次利率调整受到各方关注。

            中国人民银行上海总部相关负责人近日表示,上海当地LPR加点下限还未确定。总的基调是在因城施策的原则下,保证利率定价机制顺利转换,维持上海个人住房贷款利率基本稳定。

            融360大数据研究院分析师李万赋表示,预计过渡期内,会有越来越多的银行在系统改造和合同修改完成后,开始对新增房贷使用LPR来报价。“短期的波动不可避免,不过从目前已采取新报价方式的银行来看,基本上是为了方便管理,与之前的实际利率水平相比仍基本保持稳定。”

            中原地产首席市场分析师张大伟表示,从长期趋势来看,对于购房者而言,利率的平稳是主流。

            旺季不旺,调控政策收紧是主要原因。中原地产数据显示,今年上半年,全国房地产调控政策达251次,同比上涨31%。

            值得注意的是,4月份,在四个一线城市今年以来首次出现全面上涨后,住建部4月、5月连续两次对近四个月新建、二手住宅价格指数累计涨幅较大的共10个城市发出预警提示。

            与此同时,房企融资渠道受到越来越多限制。今年5月份开始,多家房企被列入暂停公开市场发债业务名单,监管部门收紧部分房企公开市场融资,包括债券及ABS产品。7月,银保监会、国家发改委下发文件,要求对信托、海外发债和银行等房企融资渠道进行约束。7月30日召开的中央政治局会议首次提出“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”。

            政策效果很快传导到土地市场。上海易居房地产研究院报告显示,8月份,全国40个城市土地库存去化周期为22.4个月,该数值相比7月份的22个月略微增长。

            国家统计局数据显示,今年1-7月份,全国房地产开发投资72843亿元,同比增长10.6%,增速比1-6月份回落0.3个百分点。

            在市场分化趋势明显的大背景下,各地继续坚持因城施策的调控指导原则。8月末,湖南省临澧县宣布,规定的时限内在县城区购买符合条件的商品房可享受购房货币补贴,其子女入学可就近申请学位;9月,浙江嘉兴规定,已还清公积金贷款后再次购买自住住房的,仍可享受60万元的额度;河南对符合条件的农村教师实施购房优惠,幅度不低于20%。

            易居企业集团首席执行官丁祖昱表示,地方因城施策主基调并没变,考虑当前的市场环境,市场压力大的城市可能先调整。 

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