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        今年国庆档堪称“史上最强” 影视股有望再出黑马

        2019年09月17日 17:27:05字号:T|T

            近年来,国内一些爆款电影经常会给A股带来不错的投资机会,例如《战狼2》《我不是药神》《哪吒之魔童降世》等。对于今年的国庆档,市场充满期待,《我和我的祖国》《攀登者》《中国机长》三部电影虽未正式上映,已然吊足了观众胃口。

            在A股市场上,已有不少影视股开始“蠢蠢欲动”。9月16日,金逸影视涨停,中国电影、万达电影涨幅超4%,此外,唐德影视、中视传媒等个股涨幅也较为显著。传媒板块(申万一级)8月15日反弹以来,累计涨幅达16.42%。

            国庆档票房有望超预期

            “从今年公布的国庆档影片来看,我们认为今年国庆档的票房表现有望打破历史纪录。目前国庆档已经定档影片有4部,其中《攀登者》《我和我的祖国》《中国机长》均值得期待。”申港证券文化传媒行业分析师曹旭特表示,这三部影片均属于在市场上已经得到票房证明的主旋律商业片类型。并且从故事题材到卡司阵容均不逊于早前成功的《红海行动》《湄公河行动》《战狼2》。

            中国电影评论学会会长饶曙光评价,今年国庆档堪称“史上最强”,肯定会有一个好的市场表现。

            民生证券行业研究指出,《烈火英雄》16.6亿元的高票房验证了主旋律电影的票房号召力,对比历年国庆档头部电影,预计今年国庆档三部影片票房体量在45亿元以上,将掀起国庆档新一轮观影热潮。

            市场对国庆档充满期待,中秋档的票房表现也是重要的刺激因素之一。国家电影资金办数据显示,2019年中秋档总票房累计为7.9亿元,同比增长49.9%。《诛仙Ⅰ》以2.69亿元夺得中秋档票房冠军,《名侦探柯南:绀青之拳》和《小小的愿望》分列二、三位。

            行业集中度日渐提升

            随着国庆长假的临近,观众的观影需求有望集中释放。短期传媒板块有望迎来事件驱动机会,而从中长期看,传媒板块也有望走出趋势行情。

            “从政策端和基本面视角,影视行业有望触底回升。”招商证券传媒团队表示,首先是政策边际放松;其次是成本收入匹配:2018年下半年开始,受行业政策(明星限薪等)影响,影视剧销售价格近一年来明显下滑(至少平均下降30%及以上),而相关项目的成本投入前期已投,成本基本在高位,使得一些项目盈利能力很差甚至亏损。这种时间的错配到今年年底或明年年初有望得到修正;另外是项目储备丰富:电视剧龙头公司项目储备丰富,等待公司对行业的判断确定性更强之后,项目开拍将积极推进,业绩有望回暖;最后是市场逐渐出清:影视市场经历了过去一轮“洗牌”,去除“泡沫”,清理了一批尾部中小参与者以及质量、规范存在问题的企业,整体行业集中度有望提升。

            曹旭特表示,电影作为可选消费,其供给将决定需求,2019年上半年票房同比下滑2.8%,观影人次同比下滑10.4%,这主要是由于2018年行业整顿所带来的优质影片供给不足,而对于需求端,目前可以保持乐观。今年以来已经有3部票房超40亿元的影片,足以证明国内观影需求存在巨大弹性。随着严监管的常态化以及产能的恢复,行业将重新回归上行路线。

            中银国际表示,票房、收视率等收益指标与内容口碑正相关度越来越高,尽管影视板块整体业绩未出现向上拐点,但好的内容单体量级的提升,有望给出品方带来较大业绩弹性;而题材内容储备丰富、平台内容一体化的公司,依然具有更高的业绩增长确定性。 

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