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        基建投资企稳托底 中国经济韧性增强

        2019年09月17日 17:25:24字号:T|T

            国家统计局16日发布8月份国民经济运行主要数据。统计显示,尽管8月工业生产增速继续回落,但消费和固定资产投资整体运行平稳,基建投资增速企稳回升。总体来看,部分指标月度数据出现波动,并不影响经济总体平稳大趋势,中国经济韧性不断增强。

            步入8月份,基建投资开始发力。国家统计局数据显示,1至8月份,基础设施投资同比增长4.2%,增速比1至7月份加快0.4个百分点。

            首席经济学家章俊在接受记者采访时表示,基建投资企稳与专项债发行和货币政策配套力度提升有关。前8个月,专项债发行规模已经超过1.95万亿元,比去年同期多增近1万亿元。

            基建托底经济是今年政策发力的重点。此前国家出台了一系列稳基建的政策,包括地方专项债可用作重大项目资本金等。近期中央继续加大支持力度,进一步增加专项债发行。

            首席经济学家诸建芳认为,财政部近期会提前在四季度下发明年的地方专项债额度,从而补充部分基建所需资金,以进一步托底基建增长。预计四季度基建投资增速有望继续企稳回升。

            除了表现亮眼的基建数据之外,投资和消费数据总体平稳。据统计局数据,1至8月份,固定资产投资同比增长5.5%,增速比1至7月份回落0.2个百分点。同期,高技术产业投资增长13%,快于全部投资增长。

            从消费数据来看,8月份,消费同比增长7.5%,1至8月份累计增速则保持在8.2%。升级类消费保持较快增长,服务性消费增长势头也比较好。

            首席宏观分析师李超表示,年内月度消费数据可能还会有波动,但整体走势仍趋稳。全年消费不悲观,预计仍有韧性。

            从就业和物价看,就业继续增加,价格形势总体稳定。数据显示,前8个月,城镇新增就业达984万人,完成全年计划目标任务89.5%。同期,CPI同比上涨2.4%,仍然保持在全年预期目标之内。

            “月度数据因为有各种因素影响会有一定波动,但前8个月国民经济运行处在合理区间,结构优化态势没有变,稳中有进的态势仍然在持续。”国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖昨日在国新办发布会上强调。

            他指出,我国经济全年保持总体平稳、稳中有进,实现全年预期发展目标是有基础、有条件、有信心的。

            付凌晖还提到,下一步要按照部署,进一步加大逆周期调节力度,加大“六稳”工作力度,促进经济持续健康发展。

            多位分析人士在接受记者采访时也表示,逆周期调节政策需要加大力度,着力于扩大有效内需。

            章俊认为,年底前国内政策重心依然是在货币财政政策协同基础上通过基建补短板来稳增长。随着专项债额度的提前下发,预计财政政策对经济的托底效应仍将增强,而银行在央行货币政策操作支持下对专项债项目配套融资的力度也会继续增强。整体来看,年内中国经济韧性不断增加。 

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