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        今年国内的经济形势怎么样?调研预判今年经济增6.2%

        2019年09月11日 17:13:41字号:T|T

            今年国内的经济形势怎么样?

            根据近期中国社会科学院工业经济研究所期刊《China Economist》发布的2019年三季度“中国经济学人热点调研”结果,今年中国经济整体良好,全年目标完成无忧。

            中国经济尽管有下行压力,但是仍可保持平稳较快增长。

            2019全年经济增速或为6.2%,15年内有望追平美国经济总量。

            经济学人预判2019年经济增速为6.2%。判断经济增速达到6.3%及以下的经济学人占比为82%,判断经济增速超过6.5%的经济学人占比仅4%。

            记者了解到,今年全年中国经济目标是6-6.5%。今年上半年经济增速是6.3%,即使下半年经济增速略有放慢,仍可良好地完成全年目标。

            上述报告认为,中国就业形势仍良好,物价没有通胀问题。尽管猪肉和水果价格短期有上升压力。

            该报告指出,虽然今年经济增长信心下降,但就业形势稳中趋好,而且市场通胀压力也有所缓和。2019年三季度中国经济学人就业指数为48,比上季度调查上升2个点。虽然有71%的经济学人认为物价水平会同比上升,但实际上中国经济学人物价指数为160,比上季度下降4个点,预判物价水平上行趋势将放缓。

            然而,该报告也指出,外需仍需要引起高度关注。今年的出口形势较为严峻。2019年三季度外贸景气指数为42,比上季度下降2个点。就2019年三季度出口贸易变化来看,66.3%的经济学人认为出口贸易会同比下降,较上季度下降0.6个百分点。

            经济学人对今后20年中国经济平均增速的判断均值为4.8%,美国为2.1%。并预判中国可在11年、53年和24年分别追平或赶超美国经济总量、人均GDP和制造业总体技术水平。

            七成以上经济学人认为中国15年内可以追平美国经济总量,70年内可以追平美国人均GDP。六成以上的经济学人认为中国可以在20年内追平美国制造业总体技术水平。

            国家统计局数据显示:

            1978年工业增加值仅有1622亿元。

            改革开放后,工业经济发快速发展。

            1990年,我国制造业占全球的比重为2.7%,居世界第九位;

            2000年上升到6%,位居世界第四;

            2007年达到13.2%,居世界第二;

            2010年占比进一步提高到19.8%,跃居世界第一。

            另外,

            1992年,中国工业增加值突破1万亿元大关,

            2007年突破10万亿元大关。

            2017年,中国工业增加值接近28万亿元。 

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