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        楼市的一举一动都会牵动人心,近期杭州、苏州、温州、南昌、郑州等地上调房贷利率

        2019年09月09日 16:46:50字号:T|T

            楼市的一举一动都会牵动人心,近期杭州、苏州、温州、南昌、郑州等地上调房贷利率。数据显示,2019年1-8月,全国房地产调控政策高达367次,累计次数刷新了房地产调控纪录。步入9月,传统的楼市“金九银十”会如期而至吗?随着贷款市场报价利率(LPR)改革加速,下半年房价走势又如何?

            南京、杭州、温州、南昌等地 个人房贷利率上调

            进入下半年,房贷利率进入反弹阶段,尽管一线城市表现相对平静,但二线城市的多个热门地区房贷利率却呈现上涨,有的地区首套房利率甚至上浮25%。其中,苏州、杭州、长沙调整频率加快,且部分银行额度紧张,甚至暂停受理房贷业务。

            近期,调整房贷利率的地区梳理如下:

            江苏南京:5月初,多家银行将首套房贷利率从基准利率上浮8%调整到上浮10%;5月底调整到上浮15%;7月初,南京市两家银行将首套房贷利率调整到基准利率上浮20%。

            江苏苏州:房贷利率在六七两个月也出现连续上浮。新华社报道称,7月苏州首套房贷利率普遍按照基准利率上浮23%执行,对二套房贷款未还清的客户,多数银行要求贷款利率上浮30%。

            山东青岛:从今年5月开始,青岛银行等多家银行确定上浮房贷利率,其中首套房利率上浮15%,二套房上浮20%、个别达到25%。

            杭州:多家银行首套房房贷利率在原来上浮5%到8%的基础上,进一步上调到上浮10%的水平;二套房则上浮到15%。温州:据温州网报道,国有大行及部分股份行执行首套房贷款利率基准上浮10%,即5.39%;二套房上浮基准15%,即5.635%。该房贷利率水平虽不是三年来最高,但已是该时间段内的高点。甚至也有银行开始暂停房贷业务。南昌:首套房贷利率普遍上浮20%,至5.88%;二套房贷利率普遍上浮25%至30%。郑州:据郑州日报报道,首套房贷利率多数银行按照基准利率4.9%,调整到上浮20%;二手房按基准利率上浮15%至20%不等。

            值得一提的是,虽然央行商业贷款新规尚未落地执行,但有地区的房地产中介已经开始躁动,甚至不断鼓吹房贷基准利率即将上浮。近日曾有消息传出“10月8日起,宁波房贷基准利率5.5再上浮20%”,但最终被证实是假消息。

            新规之下 个人房贷利率要参考市场利率

            8月25日,央行发布公告,自10月8日起,新发放商业性个人住房贷款利率以最近一个月相应期限的贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为定价基准加点形成。

            LPR是贷款市场报价利率的简称,是指金融机构对其最优质客户执行的贷款利率。

            新LPR又新在哪儿呢?据了解,新的LPR报价方式改为按照公开市场操作利率加点形成;报价利率期限增加5年期以上;报价频率由原来的每日报价改为每月报价一次。同时,新的LPR报价行,在原有的10家全国性银行基础上扩大到18家。

            根据政策,新规只对10月8日之后的新增住房贷款有效,存量房贷客户不受影响。定价基准转换后,全国范围内新发放首套个人住房贷款利率不得低于相应期限LPR;二套个人住房贷款利率不得低于相应期限LPR加60个基点。

            由于LPR每个月都会调整,10月8日之后的购房者,将参考新政执行时的LPR报价。业内人士表示,此次调整最大的变化是确定了房贷利率的下限,未来房贷将告别折扣。

            对购房者来说,房贷利率会如何变化呢?可以简单算一笔账。在房贷利率普遍上调的情况下,大部分银行执行的是首套房贷基准利率上浮10%-20%,二套房贷上浮20%-30%。

            同样以5年以上贷款为例,按首套房贷上浮10%计算,基准利率为4.9%,因此房贷利率为5.39%;二套房贷按上浮20%计算,房贷利率为5.88%。

            如果以8月20日5年期以上LPR(4.85 %,5.45%)做对比,则无论是首套还是二套,调整后的房贷利率都略低。但业内人士表示,实际发放的利率还会受调控政策、银行信贷资源的影响,同时,各地还将“因城施策”确定首套和二套商业性个人住房贷款利率加点下限。

            个人房贷利率会普遍上调吗?

            对于买房者来说,银行上浮房贷利率意味买房成本上升,买房之后每个月要承担的月供变多,还款压力也会随之增大。房贷利率与房价呈现反比,利率越高,导致人们购房欲望降低,进一步拉低房价。

            很多人关心,个人房贷利率会普遍上调吗?业内人士认为,在“房住不炒”的调控背景下,房地产调控不会放松,房地产政策“因城施策”,通过辖区内首套和二套商业性个人住房贷款利率加点,短期内大部分城市的房贷利率不会下降。国家金融与发展实验室特聘研究员、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院副院长董希淼认为,未来一段时间,个人住房贷款利率有上行的可能性,但幅度不会太大。不同银行对个人住房贷款业务定位不一样,因此在房贷利率会有明显分化,大型商业银行房贷利率调整预计相对温和。

            未来个人房贷政策或收紧

            上半年,我国房地产市场迎来“小阳春”,部分地区房价上涨较快。在政治局会议重申“房住不炒”,首提“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”后,高热的房地产市场迅速降温。

            针对未来涉房贷款的监管方向,董希淼认为,从房地产金融的角度看,未来调控可能从三个方面实施:

            一是收紧银行信贷资金进入房地产市场,比如提高房地产开放贷款的条件,减少贷款额度;

            二是收紧资金借助信托等渠道进入房地产项目,比如对房地产信托进行“窗口指导”;

            三是收紧个人住房贷款条件、额度,提高贷款利率,并严控个人消费贷款、信用卡资金违规流入房地产市场。此外,还可能从严掌握房地产企业发行企业债券。

            业内人士称,当前房地产政策以从紧为导向,贷款方面的规模控制依然会很强。对于一些涉足房地产的业务,或说有可能涉足房地产的业务,相关贷款会有较强的审查。

            调控再创纪录房价会跌吗?

            有数据显示,2019年1-8月,全国房地产调控政策高达367次,相比2018年1-8月份的315次上涨了17%,累计次数刷新房地产调控纪录。

            业内人士分析认为,预计2019年下半年,全国楼市将依然是双向调控,房价平稳的城市不排除出现宽松政策,但只要上涨明显,房地产调控肯定会加码。另外,从信贷利率角度看,也不排除针对房地产的利率再次提高。

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