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        传媒行业:紧抓优质赛道,静待龙头升空

        2019年09月05日 16:46:58字号:T|T

            传媒行业 2019半年报综述

            行业整体:2019上半年,传媒板块整体业绩持续承压,盈利能力基本稳定,控费效果显著;上半年商誉因资产并表有所增长,但同比仍持续下滑;基金持仓延续低配,分化显著,持仓主要集中在游戏、营销和互联网板块;传媒板块估值年初以来有所修复,近期基本稳定在 26X 左右,板块估值分化较为明显。

            细分板块:1)互联网板块:业绩增长稳健,行业仍保持高景气度,毛利率环比出现回落,费用率持续下行;2)游戏板块:在版号正常放开、核心产品陆续上线的带动下,2019H1游戏行业增速显著提升,下半年有望逐级回暖;3)营销板块:受宏观环境影响业绩承压,线上广告受影响程度低于线下广告,营销行业毛利率仍呈下滑趋势,费用率持续回落;4)广电板块:受限于行业用户的持续下滑,广电公司整体收入和净利润持续下滑,新媒体高速发展,有线网络整合在即;5)出版板块:毛利率小幅提升,期间费用率保持稳定,业绩环比改善显著;6)院线板块:受票房及观影人次增速下滑影响,影院经营承压,业绩同比持续下滑;7)影视板块:受行业调整及政策影响,整体经营表现仍疲软。

            本周核心观点及投资建议

            互联网板块:继续推荐芒果超媒。2019年上半年芒果业绩接近预告上限,会员、广告、运营商业务均高速增长,活跃用户企稳回升,我们看好公司视频平台业务和大屏端潜力,19年在芒果电视剧+综艺双重发力下,平台属性将更加凸显,长视频赛道仍具备长期投资价值。

            游戏板块:继续推荐完美世界、三七互娱、吉比特、游族网络。游戏公司中报发布完毕,核心公司业绩保持高速增长趋势。投资机会:1、二线厂商核心产品密集上线,包括重点端改手、SLG、ARPG 等产品,带动公司业绩高增长,同时今年仍有较多大作储备;2、随着 5G 的到来,技术瓶颈突破,云游戏加速发展;3、电竞持续升温,关注电竞相关产业链公司。

            院线板块:暑期档票房表现好于预期,建议关注接下来国庆档投资机会,推荐关注上海电影和万达电影。2019暑期档票房同比增长 1.59%,下半年票房增速预计好于上半年。由上海电影发行的《攀登者》将于 9月 30日国庆档上映,该影片票房有望表现优秀,建议关注影片上映对公司股价的催化机会。

            广电板块:继续推荐新媒股份和关注传统广电公司整合近况。

            风险提示: 1. 传媒行业政策风险;

            2. 业绩增长不及预期的风险。

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