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        随着我国进入工业化后期,能源需求由生产侧转向消费侧

        2019年08月29日 16:03:14字号:T|T

            中国石油集团经济技术研究院日前发布的2019版《世界与中国能源展望》报告(以下简称“报告”)指出,我国能源需求重心正逐步转向生活消费侧,表现为工业用能占比持续回落,建筑用能(居民和商业)占比不断提升。报告预计我国终端用能将继续维持电代煤、气代煤趋势,整体用能结构将朝着清洁化、低碳化、多元化发展。

            报告指出,随着我国进入工业化后期,能源需求由生产侧转向消费侧。基准情景下,工业用能在2025年前后将达到峰值,其在总体用能中的占比将从2018年的65%以上下降到2050年的55%以下;建筑和交通用能占比不断提升,其中建筑部门(居民和商业)的用能需求在2050年前将持续上升,且2035年前年均增速将维持在3.7%,增长速度较快。

            中国石油经济技术研究院石油市场研究所主任工程师王利宁介绍说,当前经济转型驱动下,工业结构内部调整以及部分高耗能产品基本饱和,是工业用能需求下滑的直接原因;而随着我国城镇化进程持续推进、乡村振兴战略的实施以及第三产业的快速发展,居民生活用能和商业用能保持增长态势。

            从能源结构来看,生产用能向生活用能的转变要求能源结构更清洁。报告指出,受电器设备普及、大气污染控制、市场化改革以及基础设施不断完善等影响,电力和天然气占建筑部门能源需求的比重不断提升。基准情景下,2035年,电力和天然气在建筑用能中的占比将分别达到50.6%和18.5%,到2050年将分别上升至58%和20%。

            报告预测,基准情景下,2035年和2050年天然气需求量将分别达6100亿立方米和6900亿立方米,2035年前中国天然气需求增量将占世界的24%左右,2040年前中国天然气将处于战略发展期。

            中国石油集团规划计划部副总经济师朱兴珊认为,我国天然气行业发展潜力巨大,但当前面临竞争力不足的问题,关键要进一步理顺天然气产业链的价格机制,同时可通过国产气的增储上产、建立应急储备、拓展进口渠道等手段缓解我国天然气对外依存度偏高的隐忧。

            报告还指出,智能时代到来引领用电需求快速增长。基准情景下,我国终端部门电气化水平将从2018年的23.2%提升至2035年的32%,到2050年进一步提升至38.4%,相应的电力需求将从2018年6.4万亿千瓦时增加至2035年的10.6万亿千瓦时,到2050年增加至12.2万亿千瓦时。同时,我国发电结构将更加多元、清洁、低碳,非化石能源发电占比将不断提升,2050年将达58%左右,风、光等可再生能源将长期保持快速增长。

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