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        核心城市房價基本停止上漲

        2019年07月31日 17:14:54字號:T|T

            29日,中國社會科學院財經戰略研究院發布的《中國住房市場發展月度分析報告》(下稱“報告”)顯示,6月核心城市房價基本停止上漲,總體實現房價穩定目標;一線城市房價由結構性微漲轉變為整體微跌。報告預測,隨著今年二季度以來一二線城市調控政策的收緊,房地產市場投機成份被不斷擠出,房價波動性持續降低。一二線城市短期房價輕微下跌,三四線房價或穩中趨降。

            核心城市房價基本停止上漲

            報告數據顯示,2019年6月核心城市房價基本停止上漲,總體實現房價穩定目標。反映全國24個核心城市房價綜合變動的緯房核心指數顯示,2019年6月,緯房核心指數微升至105.82點。與5月的105.73點相比,環比僅上漲0.09%。

            據介紹,緯房核心指數綜合了全國24個核心城市住房價格的變化,可作為中國房地產市場的重要晴雨表。24個核心城市包括了北上廣深,天津、重慶、蘇州等一、二線城市,基本覆蓋了中國最具經濟競爭力的城市群體。

            截至2019年6月,核心城市住房價格雖已經連續上漲5個月,但自4月份以來房價漲速持續下降。6月核心城市的房價漲速較2-5月進一步減緩,近1個月核心城市房價已經基本停止上漲。

            從二手房成交量指數看,在房價趨于平穩的同時,核心城市二手住房成交量也繼續快速下探。2019年6月,10大重點城市二手住房成交量指數為155.28,比5月下降了26%,但仍高于2018年同期成交量。

            報告分析,在其它條件不變的情形下,二手房成交量的快速下降,表明房價存在一定的下行動力。

            四大一線城市房價整體微跌

            報告指出,一線城市房價由結構性微漲轉變為整體微跌。一線城市緯房指數監測顯示,2019年6月,一線城市房價平均環比下跌0.615%,漲速比上月下降0.753個百分點。其中,廣州環比下跌0.86%,北京環比微跌0.48%,深圳環比下跌0.98%,上海環比微跌0.14%。

            報告顯示,從2018年1月以來的累計漲幅看,近一年半以來一線城市房價也未出現顯著上漲。一線城市中房價累計漲幅最高的深圳為2.92%,最低的上海為-6.29%,大體處于相對平穩區間。

            準一線及二線城市房價漲速進一步下降

            報告顯示,準一線城市房價漲速進一步下降,但房價上漲格局暫未出現逆轉。準一線城市緯房指數監測顯示,2019年6月,準一線城市房價平均環比上漲0.948%,漲速比上月收窄0.6個百分點。其中杭州漲速比上月收窄0.87個百分點;重慶漲速比上月收窄0.71個百分點。

            報告顯示,二線城市房價總體平穩。二線城市緯房指數監測顯示,2019年6月二線城市房價平均環比上漲0.146%,漲速比上月進一步收窄0.114個百分點。其中,寧波房價環比上漲0.96%居首位,青島房價環比下跌0.76%居末位。近年來房價出現較大漲跌波動的廈門,6月房價環比漲速降至0.58%。西安、成都等曾經的熱點城市房價均較為穩定。

            三四線城市房價漲跌互現

            報告數據顯示,三四線城市短期房價漲跌互現。三四線城市緯房指數監測顯示,2019年6月,三四線城市房價平均環比上漲0.192%,漲速比上月略擴大0.061個百分點。

            118個三四線樣本城市中,上漲的城市為65個,比上月增加15個,上漲城市占比為55%。2019年6月,作為環京風向標的廊坊(燕郊)房價環比下降2.41%,降幅與上月相近(2.64%)。

            “房住不炒”成功穩定房價

            三四線房價或穩中趨降

            報告認為,在“房住不炒”和地方政府穩定房價的主體責任成為政策共識的背景下,住房投資投機需求減退。只要“房住不炒”的方略能夠堅持,不僅房價難以出現大幅上漲,部分城市還將進入買方市場。

            報告預測指出,多數一二線城市都設立了對外限購政策,住房投機炒作較為困難。隨著2019年二季度以來一二線城市調控政策的收緊,房地產市場投機成份被不斷擠出,房價波動性持續降低。2019年1季度的市場小陽春,也在一定程度上透支了下半年的市場需求,短期市場存在下調的動力。

            “如果沒有進一步政策刺激,三四線城市住房市場將先后進入下行小周期三四線城市總體缺乏高端產業和人才吸引力,房地產市場并不具體長期持續上漲的條件。”報告還預測,下半年,三四線城市住房市場可能將先后進入下行小周期,房價穩中趨降。 

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