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        过去一年,美国的制裁已对伊朗经济构成了极大冲击

        2019年05月08日 17:17:00字号:T|T

            5月2日起,美国正式中止对伊朗的原油出口豁免,试图全面禁止伊朗原油出口。3日,美国又宣布强化对伊朗核活动的限制。分析认为,美国对委内瑞拉的制裁和欧佩克主导的减产行动本已令全球原油供应出现缺口,而此时伊朗原油出口的继续下滑将引发全球原油市场的震荡。

            伊朗原油出口继续下滑

            去年5月,美国单方面宣布退出伊核协议,重启对伊朗的经济制裁,并要求相关国家在2018年11月4日停止进口伊朗原油。去年11月,美国又宣布加码制裁伊朗,但允许伊朗原油的八个最大进口方继续从伊朗进口限量的原油,其中包括中国、土耳其、印度、韩国和日本等。

            美国此前的制裁已使伊朗原油日出口量减半至100万桶,甚至更少,而中止对伊朗原油出口的豁免,则意味着美国要将伊朗的原油出口削减至零。

            一位熟悉原油政策的伊朗官员表示,从5月起,伊朗原油日出口量可能降至70万桶,甚至低至50万桶。一位欧佩克消息人士称,伊朗原油日出口量可能维持在40至60万桶左右。Energy Aspects的分析师预计,从5月起,伊朗原油日出口量将下降至约60万桶。

            目前,市场人士普遍认为,在美国总统特朗普退出美国与伊朗的核协议之前的一个月,伊朗原油日出口量已从2018年4月至少250万桶的水平开始下降。

            4月,美国白宫发布公开声明,要求所有伊朗原油买家到5月1日必须停止进口,否则将面临制裁。分析称白宫的目的是切断伊朗每年500亿美元原油收入这条生命线,以向伊方施压,要求其限制核计划和弹道导弹试验。

            这引发了伊朗的不满,伊朗石油部长毕扬·赞格内对国会议员们表示,特朗普政府的制裁豁免计划将永远不会实现:“美国妄想切断伊朗的石油出口,这是不可能的。我们将拼尽全力打破美国的制裁。”

            伊朗石油部一名高级官员5日表示,伊朗正绕过美国制裁,在“灰色市场”出售原油。官方媒体伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社援引石油部副部长阿米尔·侯赛因·扎马尼尼亚的话称,伊朗“已经调动全国一切资源,在‘灰色市场’出售原油”。扎马尼尼亚没有解释“灰色市场”的含义和披露细节,包括原油出口量。

            伊朗外交部长贾瓦德·扎里夫4月25日接受采访时说,“总有办法绕过制裁”,伊方将尽一切努力继续出售原油。扎里夫拒绝披露伊方考虑的售油对象。扎马尼尼亚5日说,伊方在“灰色市场”售油“不是走私,而是抵抗美方非法制裁”。

            伊朗石油部长赞加内1日表示,伊朗已启动一些新的渠道,保障石油出口。赞加内表示,石油出口是伊朗石油工业最重要的环节,伊朗未来可能会允许私人资本投资伊朗石油。

            原油市场不确定性加大

            欧佩克秘书长巴尔金多称,要将伊朗彻底从全球原油市场中移除是不可能的,伊朗原油输出的减少,将加剧全球原油市场面临的威胁。巴尔金多表示,欧佩克秘书处正和伊朗石油部商讨对策。

            目前欧佩克部分成员国面临国际制裁。欧佩克秘书长巴尔金多2日在德黑兰表示,欧佩克将全力避免爆发全球“能源危机”。巴尔金多表示,我们将持续聚焦于避免发生能源危机的目标,因为这可能影响全球经济。欧佩克成员国承诺将会团结一致,不会重陷近年来面临的混乱。

            尽管美国总统特朗普要求沙特阿拉伯带头增加石油产量以弥补美国制裁伊朗导致的供应短缺,但沙特能源部长依然表示,该国不会急于增加原油供应,并将继续遵守主要产油国去年年底达成的减产协议,甚至可能将协议时间延长至今年年底。这意味着沙特仍然希望维持当前的减产状况。

            根据当前的减产协议,欧佩克产油国和以俄罗斯为首的非欧佩克产油国每天将减少120万桶原油产量,直至今年6月底。欧佩克与盟国将在6月25日至26日在维也纳会晤,讨论下一步的生产计划。

            但在谈到伊朗局势对石油市场的影响时,沙特能源部长哈立德·法利赫日前表示,世界市场供应不存在短缺问题,这方面没有什么可担心的。

            多国呼吁重启对话

            终止原油进口豁免后,理论上任何国家和地区已无合法途径与伊朗进行原油交易,任何银行也很难再处理涉及伊朗原油交易的业务,伊朗原油出口的所有航运船只也可能遭到美国海军的查扣。

            欧盟高级代表以及法国、德国、英国外长4日发表关于伊核协议的联合声明,对美国决定不再给予任何国家和地区继续进口伊朗原油的豁免表示遗憾和担忧,并对美国终止豁免伊朗在伊核协议框架内的部分核不扩散项目表示忧虑。

            声明表示,伊核协议参与各方致力于维护伊朗的资金流通和出口贸易,并与有关第三方共同支持伊核协议。欧盟和法德英将继续与其他欧洲伙伴共同努力,维护对伊合法贸易,尤其是通过与伊朗贸易的INSTEX结算机制。此外,有关参与方将显著加大对INSTEX结算机制的资金支持。法国、德国和英国今年初发表联合声明,宣布建立与伊朗贸易的INSTEX结算机制。该机制全称是“贸易往来支持工具”,是在美国主导的全球金融体系之外运作的支付机制,帮助欧洲企业绕过美国对伊朗单方面制裁,使欧盟继续与伊朗进行贸易。

            过去一年,美国的制裁已对伊朗经济构成了极大冲击。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据,美国重启对伊制裁以来,伊朗国内的通货膨胀率飙升至40%,4.2万里亚尔才能兑换1美元。IMF预计,今年伊朗的国民生产总值(GDP)还将继续下滑。

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