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        人口、金融和家庭杠杆等基本面都决定了我国房价上涨空间已经非常狭小

        2019年04月25日 17:28:51字号:T|T

            中共中央政治局召开的会议指出,要坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位,落实好一城一策、因城施策、城市政府主体责任的长效调控机制。当前,政府各级主管部门应加强楼市虚假信息、炒作行为的有力管控和严厉打击,积极推动楼市理性预期形成。近期,伴随着楼市交易回温,房地产市场各种不实消息和虚假传闻不胫而走,并广泛扩散。楼市“噪音”对房地产市场参与者的影响过程,可以危害到房地产市场的健康稳定运行。历史和实践都已经充分证明,房地产市场很容易形成“羊群效应”,每一次房价泡沫的形成,都是各种楼市“噪音”不断催化市场非理性的结果。而这种催化过程建立在房地产市场严重信息不对称的基础之上。普通商品市场虽然也存在信息不对称,但因为交易相当便利,由信息不对称所形成的交易价格对价值的偏离态势,通常可以通过连续交易进行修正。即使可能存在各种噪音,也会因为连续交易的证伪机制,导致各种谣言“不攻自破”。房地产市场却不同,住宅价值过于高昂容易引发交易心理剧烈波动,在各种楼市“噪音”的催化下,楼市供求信息的正常传递机制可能会被严重扭曲和放大,反过来又会通过预期自我实现机制被循环强化。回顾2016年以来热点城市房地产市场的急剧升温,若非各种楼市“噪音”持续不断催化,房地产市场非理性敞口恐怕不会无序扩大。

            而楼市“噪音”催化“羊群效应”的作用,往往始于房地产市场运行到关键节点。在房地产市场刚性需求累积释放的过程中,市场成交逐渐回暖,此时各种楼市“噪音”不胫而走。诸如“房地产开发商疯狂举牌拿地”“二手房成交太猛了”“多地楼盘预谋涨价”等等,频频见诸微信朋友圈、互联网;房地产中介各种不固定、非预期的电话骚扰也是让人不胜其烦。这些都会潜移默化地影响到房地产市场的交易心理,营造出“不买就买不上了”“房价即将上涨”的紧张气氛,推动住宅交易价格上升,反过来又会“证实”先前楼市“噪音”,导致房价上涨预期不断循环强化。特别是期间出台的各种经济金融政策会被有意曲解,但凡有用就被断章取义拿过来作为房价即将上涨的“证据”,看起来“头头是道”,实际上却另有所图。当前我国楼市又运行到关键节点,需要理性认识房地产市场的新变化。一是市场刚性需求累积和季节惯性叠加。经历两年严厉调控后,市场刚性需求有所累积。传统上春节后往往是住宅成交旺季。如果将2月和3月的交易数据合并进行同期比较,那么所谓个别热点城市交易大幅回暖的观点,事实上缺乏有力证据。二是房价渐趋稳定也增强了刚性需求入市意愿。2017年以来的严厉房地产调控措施,令热点城市二手房价格回落并趋稳,合理交易的窗口已经打开。三是房住不炒政策定位为楼市稳健运行进行了坚强背书。过去近两年,我国房地产市场实施“因城施策”调控措施,坚持“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”定位,市场的投机炒作动能已基本消退,楼市迈出了回归居住属性的坚实步伐。这些新变化表明,房地产市场交易回暖存在合理性,牵强地将各种稳增长政策与房地产市场进行绑架缺乏合理性。

            目前看,人口、金融和家庭杠杆等基本面都决定了我国房价上涨空间已经非常狭小。楼市“小阳春”是房地产市场正常运行的结果,各方人士应该以平常心对待。面对各种楼市“噪音”,要切实提高自身的鉴别力,既不信谣,也不传谣。政府各级主管部门也要加强楼市虚假信息、炒作行为的有力管控和严厉打击,让浑水摸鱼的投机分子得到有效的警戒,让火中取栗的不法分子得到应有的惩处,积极推动楼市理性预期形成,并有效推进房地产市场长效机制建设。

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