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        近段时间,楼市回暖的消息不断

        2019年04月04日 16:53:59字号:T|T

            近段时间,楼市回暖的消息不断。多家机构4月1日发布的统计数据显示,3月北京楼市二手房网签住宅16051套,创下了近10个月以来的签约新纪录。这也是2017年“3·17”楼市调控后第三个月度签约破1.6万套的月份。

            楼市回暖不能让房价回暖

            业内研究中心4月1日发布的数据显示,3月深圳新房住宅的成交套数为3088套,环比上升141.4%;二手住宅成交4551套,环比上升127.9%,同比虽下降15.1%,但成交量为近半年新高。据报道,首套房主流商业贷款利率仍为基准利率上浮10%的同时,多家银行表示额度宽松,如果是纯商业贷款,越来越多银行的放款速度是“一周见”——抵押完一周左右放款。

            楼市回暖与银行政策宽松,已经形成了互动,从而带来了市场成交量的快速攀升。不仅一线城市,二、三线城市也出现了成交量反弹的现象。同时,少数三、四线城市还调整了楼市调控政策,给人一种楼市政策要放松的错觉。

            实际上,尽管楼市呈现出回暖的迹象,但是,并不是市场真的已经消化了楼市调控政策产生的压力,进入到市场复苏状态,更多情况下,还是季节性因素所致,在市场呈现回暖迹象的情况下,房价并没有出现明显反弹。数据显示,3月北京二手房成交均价61420元/平方米,比2月上涨2.5%。3月高单价的中心城四区,成交占比环比提升2.5个百分点,扩大均价涨幅。若剔除结构性原因,3月均价涨幅在历史周期中不大。从短期看,3月后两周成交均价已随成交量的回落而下跌,均价上涨势头难以持续。

            房价没有随着市场成交量而同步上涨,无疑是最好的现象,也是楼市调控最希望出现的结果。在不少城市库存现象还比较严重的情况下,迫切需要市场复苏,消化库存,化解风险。因此,3月份市场的回暖,对消化库存,维护市场平衡是有积极影响的。虽然库存量较小的一线城市回暖更加明显,但也会带动三、四线城市的市场回暖的。

            需要把握好的是,面对楼市出现的回暖现象,地方政府一定要头脑清醒,掌握好政策尺度,切不能让房价随之回暖。在经济需要房地产发挥稳定作用的情况下,如果市场持续低迷,显然是不合适的,也是需要防止的。而最好的防止手段,就是不让房价随着市场回暖,不让房价继续回到快速上涨的轨道。对房价来说,最佳的选择就是稳定或缓慢小幅下跌,既能够满足购房者需求,也不影响楼市的整体稳定,不对经济稳定构成不利影响。

            这也意味着,从近两个月来市场的回暖情况看,总体上讲,是符合调控预期的,也是有利于市场回暖的。在市场回暖和房贷政策宽松的双重夹击下,房价没有被裹挟,没有在两股力量的共同推动下出现上涨,那么,对接下来楼市政策的运用上,就会比较主动,对货币政策的使用,也会受到的制约少一些。

            只要坚持“房住不炒”定位,楼市的回暖乃至复苏,就不需要承受太大的压力。这也进一步说明,本轮楼市调控的政策和方法是对路的,是符合市场规律的。尤其在市场出现回暖的情况下,房价没有随之而动,确实是非常喜人的现象。因为,过去的数次调控,都是市场热、房价动,市场回暖、房价复苏。这样的格局,显然是不利于楼市稳定,也是不利于居民心理稳定的,更不利于房地产对经济稳定的作用发挥。

            面对楼市出现的回暖迹象和房价没有随之而涨的喜人景象,一定要防止头脑发热,再次增加库存或者放松调控,引发新的矛盾和问题。楼市只能以稳定为主要目标,以稳定来推动市场的健康和规范,以稳定打消广大居民对房价上涨的恐惧。 

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