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        钢铁有色行业周报:黑色涨幅收窄,镍价预计承压

        2017年07月14日 17:08:24字号:T|T

            本周黑色系上涨动能明显减弱,铁矿、焦炭相对强势,钢材期货多空博弈加剧,螺纹现货显露疲态,前期表现强势的钢坯也开始走弱,库存由降转升,价格小幅下跌。从基本面看,6月中旬重点钢企粗钢日均产量环比继续增长,前两旬日均产量已超过4月,本周大中型钢企进口铁矿石、焦炭、废钢可用天数继续增长,当前钢厂生产热情不减,高炉开工率再次回升,但旬末重点钢企库存增幅已经环比转正,社会库存去化继续放缓,预计后期钢价可能继续走弱。相比之下,随着钢厂需求的增加,供给端由于环保压力及运输资源限制,焦炭供给可能会出现阶段性短缺,有望继续保持强势表现,受此影响,钢厂高盈利可能会有所回落。有色方面,受周一新疆再传减产消息提振,本周沪铝一枝独秀,单周涨幅2.01%,铜受LME库存大幅增长(26.18%)压制,价格回落幅度较大,不过,目前铜供需基本面较好,WBMS统计截至4月末供给缺口为-0.50万吨,继ESCONDIDA之后,本周全球最大铜生产商之一智力铜矿ANTOFAGASTA再次面临罢工威胁,或许能再次引发供给收缩预期,铜价或能获得一定支撑。菲律宾新任环保部长取消矿业项目环境许可证限制,后期对国内矿山限制可能会继续放松,印尼也新增一家矿企镍矿出口配额,受这两大利空因素影响,本周LME镍、沪镍分别下跌4.21%、2.61%,随着镍矿供给的迅速释放,预计后期镍价仍将承压。

            本周数据跟踪:唐山Q235方坯价格收在3,280.00元/吨,环比下跌0.30%,Myspic钢价指数收在134.48,周环比上涨0.72%;期货价格方面,本周螺纹钢、热轧期货主力合约价格收在3,428.00元/吨、3,444.00元/吨,较上周分别变动2.42%、1.80%。普氏62%铁矿石价格指数收在64.35美元/吨,环比上周上涨2.14%。主要城市钢材社会库存938.32万吨,环比上周下降0.11%;进口铁矿石港口库存14,229.00万吨,环比下跌1.28%。有色方面,铝铅锌LME3个月期货价格基本持平,铜镍锡分别下跌2.15%、4.21%、1.05%。黄金和白银的伦敦现货价格分别为1215.65美元/盎司、15.84美元/盎司,较上周分别变动-2.14%、-3.83%。

            行业重要事件:6月中旬重点钢企粗钢日均产量186.1万吨,库存环比增4.51%;河南拟退出长期停产电解铝产能50万吨;菲律宾环保部长取消矿业项目环境许可限制。

            发债企业及上市公司跟踪:*ST华菱发布2017年半年度业绩预告,预计盈利9-10亿元;本钢板材拟注资10.38亿元参与东北特钢重组;天山铝业改制为股份有限公司;兴业矿业新合并全资子公司乾金达矿业获得采矿许可证。

            发债企业评级变动:大公国际将西王集团评级展望下调为负面,主体评级维持AA+,下调依据是钢铁行业产能依然过剩,公司债务负担较重,对外担保企业齐星集团已经资不抵债,公司对其担保金额很大,面临很大的代偿风险等不利因素。

            本周新发债情况:本周钢铁有色行业新发债4只,发行主体分别为中国铝业公司、南山集团有限公司、山东钢铁集团有限公司、江苏悦达集团有限公司。

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