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        2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业业绩低点,国产品牌仍负重前行,新一轮科技革命推动传统汽车工业转型升级[图]

        2019年09月30日 14:00:44字号:T|T

            一、汽车行业整体:业绩低点,曙光渐现

            受去库存及排放升级影响,2019Q2行业处于业绩低点,销量持续下滑背景下各板块收入均不同程度承压,其中乘用车和零部件净利润大幅下滑。当前估值仍处于历史低位,已充分反映市场悲观预期。后续来看,受益于低基数和低库存,6-7月以来销量持续超出预期,批发增速有望于三季度转正并逐季改善。

            受汽车行业销量下滑影响,2019Q2汽车行业整体营收下滑幅度较大。二季度汽车销量下滑13.5%,其中乘用车批发销量下滑14.3%,下滑幅度较大。在此背景下,2019Q2汽车行业整体收入同比下滑12.1%,其中乘用车和零部件下滑较多,分别同比下滑16.6%和8.8%。

        2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的营业收入情况(单位:亿元)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2019-2025年中国汽车行业市场全景调查及投资方向研究报告

        汽车行业整体及子行业的营业收入变化情况

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            受乘用车、零部件板块拖累,2019Q2汽车行业净利润下滑幅度较大。2019Q2乘用车和零部件净利润分别同比下滑45.6%和37.6%,导致整体汽车行业利润下滑34.9%。货车和客车表现良好,分别同比增长10.5%和8.4%。

        2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的归母净利润情况(单位:亿元)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的归母净利润变化情况

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的净利率变化情况

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            毛利率角度,2019Q2行业整体毛利率同比微降,环比持平,其中乘用车板块毛利率下降较为明显。2019Q2行业毛利率为16.1%,同比减少0.5pct,环比基本持平,整体保持稳定,其中乘用车板块下滑较为明显,同比减少4.0pct。

        2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的毛利率变化情况(乘用车板块剔除上汽和悦达,整体未剔除)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            期间费用率角度,各板块期间费用率均有不同程度提升,主要是由于收入下滑所致。

        2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的期间费用率变化情况

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            现金流质量角度,2019Q2现金流明显改善,主要为乘用车板块贡献。

        2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的经营性现金流/营收占比变化情况

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            应收账款与存货角度,2019Q2行业整体周转效率下滑。

        2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的应收账款周转天数变化情

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            2017-2019年二季度中国汽车行业整体及子行业的存货周转天数变化情况

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            二、国产品牌仍负重前行

            汽车产业作为我国国民经济的重要支柱产业,在打造中国品牌的进程中肩负重任,而随着我国科技、经济的迅速发展壮大,我国自主品牌依托多年的工业基础、技术创新、人力资源积累,努力打造品质一流,技术先进的自主品牌。目前,在前进的道路上,我国自主品牌汽车仍然负重前行。

            近几日,随着各大车企陆续公布6月的终端销量,往常月初都是合资品牌率先公布销售数据报告,而我国自主品牌车辆则是10号左右才发布公告。而这次部分自主品牌车辆5号左右就亮出成绩,可谓底气十足。

            数据显示,一汽红旗单月总销量超8千台,同比增长167%;奇瑞汽车6月共卖出46496辆,同比增长6.8%。实现同比、环比的大幅度增长,而且还是连续16个月的同比增长。上半年总销量超3.32万辆,而对于红旗而言完成10万的年度销售目标看起来并不是很困难。

            事实上,红旗销量的爆增绝不是偶然,而销量冠军是红旗H5与H7这两款家轿,前段时间,上海车展亮相了改款版本,集合了稳重、大气、还添加了年轻人的运动元素,无论是外观还是性价比上均有很大的提升。目前,大部分的自主品牌在产销方面仍面临着很多问题,自主品牌汽车要走出当前的困局,仍需加倍努力。

            业内人士表示,针对自主品牌而言,一些落后的企业为什么竞争短板凸显,归根结底还是产品问题,满意度、消费者口碑等方面没有树立起自己应有的品牌竞争。

            现在很多自主品牌产品同质化现象严重,包括造型、功能等方面。另一方面,一些自主品牌在过去一段时间里大规模地扩张产能,造成利用率低等资源浪费问题,在大环境不好的当今,出现了严重的资金问题。

            据了解,我国部分自主品牌汽车仍面临着销量下滑、亏损不断、海外受挫等问题,这些问题引起不安,导致部分自主品牌车企积极发展智能网联汽车以及新能源汽车,抢夺新兴市场的市场份额,以帮助企业渡过“寒冬”。

            三、新一轮科技革命推动传统汽车工业转型升级

            “部分较大规模的自主品牌应该结合产品、技术、价格优势去竞争市场份额是至关重要的。对于中小型或相对落后的企业而言更应该正视市场环境、明确品牌发展定位,把握好未来的资源整合与合并机会。”业内人士补充道。

            张翔博士表示,对于自主品牌而言,我认为创新最重要,例如新能源汽车,产品有亮点,智能网联功能,语音识别、手势识别以及人脸识别等,这些都是比较创新的方面,用创新去吸引消费者,才能提高汽车的销量。

            中国汽车工业咨询委员会主任安庆衡表示,近年来,随着互联网、人工智能、电动化等新技术的兴起,汽车工业进入了快速变革时期,新一轮科技革命推动着传统汽车工业的转型升级,传统汽车制造的价值链面临格局重塑,智能网联汽车、新能源汽车正逐步成为未来汽车的全新定义。而发展智能网联汽车已成为世界共识,各个国家也相继健全了相关法律法规。

            张翔博士补充道,关于促进自主品牌汽车又好又快发展,车企的重组与合并很重要,资源的共享有利于提高企业的综合竞争力。所以合并是一个双赢,这个战略不仅是在国际汽车市场获得了成功的经验,我觉得国内也是成功的经验。截至目前为止,我国大部分企业还是亏损之后卖资质或者停产,合并企业较少,未来合并重组是国际和国内汽车行业的大趋势。

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