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        2019年3月中国乳制品产量累计超630万吨,乳制品行业仍存在较大潜力[图]

        2019年09月30日 13:35:59字号:T|T

            一、乳制品行业市场规模情况分析:人均消费量提升及细分品类发展将成为中国乳制品行业主要发展动力

            2018年1-3季度全国乳制品产量呈小幅度增长,增长幅度有所减缓;2018年4季度全国乳制品产量回落。2018年全年全国乳制品产量为2687.1万吨,同比增长4.4%。截止至2019年3月全国乳制品产量为213.5万吨,同比增长7.2%。累计方面,2019年1-3月全国乳制品产量累计达到了633.5万吨,累计增长6.1%。

        2018-2019年3月全国乳制品当月月值情况

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2020-2026年中国乳制品行业市场经营管理及竞争策略建议报告

        2018-2019年3月全国乳制品产量当月值统计及增长情况

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            国家政策清晰的扶植导向为我国乳业提供适宜的大环境。自2017年来,“奶业十三五规划”、新国标下生乳分级、奶业振兴行动等一系列政策频出,引导行业加速发展。

        政策利好为乳业提供环境支持

        日期
        政策
        具体内容
        2017.01
        国家五部委联合印发“奶业十三五规划”,提升奶业一体化水平,到2020年奶业整体进入世界先进行列
        预计到2020年全国奶类总需求量达到5800万吨,年均增长3.1%;优化乳制品产品结构,因地制宜发展常温奶、巴氏杀菌奶、酸奶等液态乳产品,适度发展干酪等产品
        2018.02
        新国标第一次讨论稿发布
        强调生乳分级、加工工艺规范明确化、规范奶产品包装标识
        2018.05
        国务院总理李克强主持召开国务院常务会议,研究奶业振兴事项
        加强优质奶源基地建设、完善乳制品加工和流通体系、强化乳品质量安全监管、加大乳制品消费引导等。到2020年,奶业供给侧结构性改革取得实质性成效,奶业现代化建设取得明显进展。到2025年,奶业实现全面振兴。
        2019.02
        中央一号文件发布
        奶业振兴行动为十大重点目标之一
        2019.04
        农业农村部、财政部发布2019年重点强农惠农政策,支持建设优质奶源基地,实施奶业振兴行动
        -
        2019.06
        国家七部委联合印发《国产婴幼儿配方乳粉提升行动方案》,促进国产婴幼儿配方乳粉产量,提高婴幼儿配方乳粉自给水平
        -

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            整体而言,我国乳制品行业目前仍存在较大潜力,未来增长动力主要来自于人均消费量的提升及细分品类的发展。

            从细分品类的发展来看,我国酸奶、植物基、冰激凌及奶酪等品类拥有更多发展机会,而风味乳饮则将逐渐步入行业衰退期。

            二、细分乳制品行业:细分赛道迭代趋势明显

            1.常温奶:市场增量有限

            2018年,我国常温奶销售额实现142亿美元,占饮用乳销售额约75%,持续主导地位。自14年以来,常温奶行业整体增速降档,2018年增长率约0.7%。

            我国人均常温奶消费量自2015年起增速显著下滑,2017/2018年连续负增长。短期内常温奶在量上的突破有限。

        中国常温奶市场规模及增速(亿美元)

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        中国常温奶销售额占饮用乳比重

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        国内常温牛奶人均消费量价趋势

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            2.低温奶:新鲜度铸就区域市场屏障

            2018年国内低温奶零售额达47.0亿美元,消费量达243.2万吨,占全国液态奶消费量约24.9%。低温奶2012年增速超越常温奶达到7.9%,此后保持较高速增长,成为细分品类中增速领先的板块。低温奶市场2013-2018年CAGR达到6.8%,预测2018-2023年CAGR将实现6.4%。

        低温奶占液态奶消费量比重

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        低温奶市场容量及增速

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            低温奶的新鲜度、营养价值及使用风味优于常温奶,符合消费升级趋势,对标全球成熟市场的消费水平,国内低温奶仍存在较多发展机会。

            3.奶粉:高端化趋势明显,新兴渠道渗透率持续提升

            2018年我国配方奶粉零售额达251.4亿美元,消费量达65.7万吨。经历高速发展后,我国配方奶粉增速自2015年起进入平稳增长阶段,2015-2018年销量CAGR约5.1%。

            2016年国家全面实施“二孩”政策,2016-2017年迎来一轮婴儿潮,2016年出生率达12.95‰,为2002年来最高。然而生育新政带来的短期红利衰减迅速,2018年我国出生人口1523万,出生率仅为10.94‰。

            未来行业规模的增长仍将较为温和,主要驱动力一是来源于人口政策带来的长期影响,二是源自渗透率和消费习惯的变迁。未来奶粉产品价格走势增速总体还是以物价水平提升为主。

        国内配方奶粉消费额及量价增速(百万美元)

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        中国出生人口情况

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            4.植物基饮料:符合消费升级趋势,龙头试水布局

            目前,国内以豆类饮品为代表的植物基饮料消费增长亮眼。2018年我国消费豆类饮品约17.8亿美元,13-18年CAGR达9.7%。自2015年以来,豆类饮品销售进入加速增长阶段。

        国内豆类饮品消费额及量价增速(百万美元)

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            2018年,国内豆类饮品CR5为51.9%,排名前列的公司多为区域型即饮类企业。其中维他奶市占率达40.2%,处于绝对领先地位;达利豆本豆和祖名分列二三,市占率为4.8%/3.1%。

        植物蛋白制造企业加速入局,盈利情况较为健康

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            三、未来发展趋势:随着消费增长和城镇化水平不断提升,未来乳制品行业发展空间巨大。

            1、三四线城市及农村市场消费潜力巨大

            近年来,我国农村居民消费水平持续高速增长。随着收入的增加,农村居民在膳食结构上减少了粮油消费量,增加有利于健康的其他食品消费量。乳制品消费量增速远高于蛋类、水产品和瓜果类的增速,已逐渐成为农村居民饮食结构的重要组成部分。

            2、市场规模进一步扩大

            随着中国人民生活水平的逐渐提高,乳制品行业市场会不断扩大并趋于成熟,中国将成为世界上乳制品消费最大的潜在市场。同时也将刺激中国乳制品产量进一步提高。

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