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        2019年课外培训领域发展前景分析:行业整顿,刚需刺激,企业规范扩张[图]

        2019年09月26日 14:02:36字号:T|T

            一、现状

            在刚需不变和行业监管趋严的背景下,不影响头部企业异地扩张战略和营收增长。行业整顿背景下,领军企业的异地扩张战略仍在持续。在“中考”和“高考”的指挥棒下,K12培训需求短期内不会受行业整顿影响,企业异地扩张战略将持续。

        2017Q1-2019Q4新东方教学中心数量变化(个)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2017.12-2019.6立思辰大语文教学中心数量变化(个)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2019H1K12培训板块公司教育业务收入变化

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            受行业持续规范化影响,短期内业内公司营业成本和费用率上升明显。A股K12培训相关公司教育业务平均毛利率下降至35.77%,平均净利率下降至7.39%。

            二、发展趋势

            为进一步规范校外培训机构和坚决执行义务制阶段学生减负工作,2019年以来,国家先后出台3份有关于K12课外辅导相关政策意见,6个关于培训行业规范细则也在多省发布,表明政府整顿和规范行业的决心。在政策高举整顿大旗下,行业标准的提高会在短期内导致运营成本提高,加速不规范、不经济的小型培训机构退出市场竞争,促使部分学生生源部分将流入全国化,品牌化,规模化的培训机构,促头部效用日益显著。预测短期内公司的盈利能力会出现小幅度下降,但随着规模效应的持续,行业集中度的上升,头部公司的盈利能力会有所回升。

        2019年K12课外辅导相关国家级政策及意见

        颁布机关
        时间
        内容
        教育部
        2019.01
        教育部发布全国校外培训机构专项治理行动整改工作最新进展情况通报。截至2018年
        12月30日,全国共摸排校外培训机构40.11所,存在问题机构27.28万所,现已完成
        整改26.99万所,整改完成率98.93%。
        教育部
        2019.05
        教育部办公厅发布《关于开展校外培训机构专项治理“回头看”活动的通知》,重点摸排
        是否存在学科类培训内容未备案、培训班名称不规范、从事学科类培训教师无教师资
        格证、培训内容和培训教师信息未公示、收费跨度超过3个月、培训时间违规等情况。
        教育部
        2019.07
        教育部等六部门发布《关于规范校外线上培训的实施意见》,文件要求线上培训机构应
        具有完善的招聘、审查、管理培训人员的办法,师资队伍相对稳定,不得聘用中小学
        在职教师。线上培训应当根据学生年龄、年级合理设置课程培训时长,每节课持续时
        间不得超过40分钟,课程间隔不少于10分钟。直播培训时间不得与中小学校教学时
        间相冲突,面向小学1-2年级的培训不得留作业。

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2019年部分重点省市K12课外辅导规章及意见

        颁布省份
        时间
        内容
        四川省
        2019.01
        四川省发布《四川省规范校外培训机构发展实施方案》,规定同一培训时段内师生比不
        低于1:20,一个培训点专职教师不得少于3人,校外培训机构不得聘用中小学在职教
        师。同时,校外培训机构法人注册地实际使用的办学场所总建筑面积不少于300平方
        米,且同一培训时段内生均教学用房建筑面积不少于3平方米。办学场所不得选用居
        民住宅、半地下室、地下室及其他存在安全隐患的场所。校外培训机构不得举办、受
        托举办或变相举办与招生入学挂钩的测试活动。
        甘肃省
        2019.02
        甘肃省人民政府办公厅发布《关于规范校外培训机构发展的实施意见》,文件要求坚持
        属地管理原则,校外培训机构由县级教育部门负责审批颁发办学许可证,未经教育部
        门批准,任何培训机构不得以家教、咨询等名义面向中小学生开展培训业务。中小学
        校不得举办或参与举办校外培训机构。严格执行国家规定,收费时段与教学安排应协
        调一致,不得一次性收取时间跨度超过3个月的费用,并开具正规票据。
        四川省
        2019.03
        四川省制定了校外培训机构发展总量布局规划,在各地有证有照校外培训机构规模基
        础上,按10%的比例上浮,明确各地校外培训机构发展总量。其中暂停新批城区(设
        区的城市)开办资金(或注册资本)少于100万元、县(市)开办资金(或注册资本)
        少于30万元的小型培训机构。新批校外培训机构必须坚持“退二进一”的原则,即被吊
        销销2家校外培训机构办学许可证,方可新批1家校外培训机构。
        海南省
        2019.03
        海南省人民政府办公厅印发《海南省校外培训机构管理办法的通知》,文件要求校外培
        训机构不得以任何形式组织中小学生等级考试,不得举办或者变相举办与中小学生招
        生入学有关的竞赛、评级等考核评价活动,不得在学科知识培训中出现“超纲教学”“提
        前教学”“强化应试”等不良行为。校外培训机构应当按课程项目收费,不得一次性收取
        时间跨度超过三个月的费用,不得在公布的项目和标准外收取其他费用,不得以任何
        名义向培训对象摊派费用或者强行集资。
        广东省
        2019.08
        广东省教育厅发布《广东省落实教育部等九部门关于中小学生减负措施的实施方案(征
        求意见稿)》,文件要求依法依规对校外培训机构进行审批登记、开展专项治理、强化日
        常监管,切实规范校外培训秩序。鼓励发展以培养中小学生兴趣爱好、创新精神和实
        践能力为目标的培训,坚决禁止应试、超标、超前培训及与招生入学挂钩的行为。严
        肃中小学招生入学工作纪律,坚决禁止中小学校与校外培训机构联合招生,坚决查处
        将校外培训机构培训结果与中小学校招生入学挂钩的行为,并依法追究有关学校、校
        外培训机构和相关人员责任
        广东省
        2019.08
        广东省教育厅印发《广东省校外培训机构培训服务合同(示范文本)》,对中小学校外
        培训机构实施差异化监管。对于收费退费行为规范、预付费风险低的可减少检查频次,
        对违规收费、退费投诉集中、预付费风险高的要实行重点监测、加大检查频次和力度,
        督促各校外培训机构依法依规经营

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2019-2025年中国课外培训行业市场现状分析及投资前景预测报告

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