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        2019年上半年全球黄金行业市场供需及未来黄金价格走势分析[图]

        2019年09月26日 13:22:29字号:T|T

            一、黄金供需稳步增长

            黄金需求具有多样性,包括了黄金首饰、工业原料、投资以及储备资产需求。尽管受经济增长以及黄金价格变动影响,全球黄金需求有所波动,但2010年以来,均保持在4000吨以上规模,2010~2018年消费的复合增速为0.78%,并于2018年达到4345吨。

            分领域看,全球黄金需求中黄金首饰和投资需求占比最高,其中前者在2018年约占51%,后者约占黄金需求的27%,工业及其他领域需求占比较小。按区域看,中国和印度是全球第一、第二大消费市场,二者市场份额约40%,其他比较重要的消费地区包括北美、欧洲和中东。

        全球黄金需求(吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2019-2025年中国黄金行业市场竞争格局及行业发展前景预测报告

        全球黄金需求构成

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        中国黄金需求(吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        中国黄金需求构成

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            未开采的黄金资源方面,截止2018年,全球探明的黄金储量约为5.4万吨,且分布较为分散,其中澳大利亚、南非和俄罗斯位居前三位,在全球黄金储量的占比分别为18%、11%和10%,其他国家的储量大多低于5%,而中国在全球黄金储量占比仅3.7%。矿产金产量区域分布和资源有所差异,总体集中度不高,其中中国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、美国是全球前四大黄金生产国,占比分别为12.3%、9.5%、9.0%和6.4%,其他国家大多在5%以下。

        全球黄金储量的分布

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        全球矿产金产量分布

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            全球黄金的每年供给包括了新开采的矿产金和回收金以及生产者对冲,其中矿产金和回收金是主要的供给来源,2018年占比分别约为74%和26%,而生产者对冲对供给影响很小,2010年以来,在供给占比大多不到1%。

            总体上,黄金供给增长较为缓慢,2010~2018年供给复合增速为0.95%,并于2018年达到4490吨。分来源看,矿产金供给整体保持稳步增长,2010~2018年供给复合增速为2.7%;回收金供给和价格则有一定关系,2010~2012年黄金价格上涨,黄金持有者卖出套现,导致2010~2012年回收金供给增加,而2013年之后,黄金价格较为弱势,回收金的供给回落趋于稳定,维持在1100~1200吨。

        全球黄金供给情况(吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            二、未来黄金价格有望逐步走高

            目前美国及全球经济环境和上世纪90年代末到本世纪初的情况较为相似,处于经济增长及货币政策转档期。目前全球经济增长不确定性增加,各国央行开始调整货币政策,风向标的美联储2019年8月1日实施了近十年的首次降息。全球范围内,2019年以来,超过20个国家降息。根据黄金历史价格周期规律,经济增长压力增加以及货币政策调整,有利于黄金价格走高,判断未来黄金价格中枢有望抬升。

            对黄金价格较为敏感的黄金ETF2019年以来黄金持仓量也呈增长态势,此外,全球黄金储备2010年以来持续增加,反映了对黄金中长期价格趋势看好。

        全球主要经济体PMI走势疲软

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2019年8月美联储降息(单位:%)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        美国CPI处于较低水平(单位:%)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        美国新增非农就业人数(千人)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        全球黄金储备不断增加(吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        主要黄金ETF持仓量变化(吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

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