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        2019年上半年中国生活用纸行业格局发展分析及中美快消品发展对比、美国生活用纸行业发展格局分析[图]

        2019年09月25日 14:33:52字号:T|T

            上世纪80年代开始,宝洁、联合利华等国际快消品巨头逐步开拓中国市场,因产品属性上较为先进,营销能力远远领先于国内企业,这些公司旗下的品牌一度风靡国内市场。因此时至今日国际快消巨头在国内市场依然拥有很高的市占率。例如我国化妆品市场前五大企业均为欧美企业。纸品方面,卫生巾和纸尿裤市场也主要由国际品牌领跑。但生活用纸在快消行业属于例外,前四家企业中,恒安、维达、洁柔均来自国内,国际巨头涉足较少使得国内生活用纸龙头拥有更好的市场扩张机遇。

        我国生活用纸行业市占率

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            从生活用纸前四家企业业绩对标看(恒安、维达仅取生活用纸业务收入),中顺洁柔营收增长最为迅猛,2019H1营收同比增长22.7%;而维达、恒安、金红叶同期收入分别同比增长9.7%、7.4%和4.5%。从过往业绩表现看,中顺洁柔收入端增速也显著优于竞争对手。如按生活用纸行业每年6%的增速进行推算,头部品牌中洁柔、维达、恒安份额均有增长,而金红叶因收入跑输行业份额下滑。

        2014-2019H1中顺洁柔收入及变动趋势

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2015-2019H1维达国际收入及变动趋势

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2015-2019H1恒安国际收入及变动趋势

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2014-2019H1金红叶收入及变动趋势

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            从毛利率走势看,今年木浆价格下跌使得前四大品牌普遍受益,2019H1洁柔、维达、恒安毛利率较2018H2分别改善4.7pct、2.3pct、5.8pct,但金红叶毛利率则下滑8.9pct。对标2018H1,仅洁柔毛利率同比提升0.2pct,维达、恒安、金红叶分别同比下滑1.2pct、0.8pct和4.6pct。从毛利率绝对值看,上半年洁柔36.7%的毛利率水平远高于同行,高端产品战略推进成效显著。销售费用率方面,洁柔与恒安销售费用投入同比呈现提升趋势,分别较去年同期增长0.1pct和1.5pct,维达和金红叶则下降0.3pct和4.7pct。从费用率趋势看,近年洁柔和维达终端投入基本稳定,恒安和金红叶呈现开支收紧趋势。

        2015-2019H1前四家生活用纸企业毛利率对比

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            我国生活用纸的市场规模增速与GDP节奏相关性较高,没有纸尿裤在21世纪初产品导入期的行业扩容势头。因此,国际巨头切入中国市场时,并未将生活用纸作为重点。因此,生活用纸成为了快速消费品中国内企业成长格局较好的领域。假以时日,生活用纸行业同样有望成为龙头企业的孵化温床。

        快速消费品各子行业毛利率

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            按照生活用纸市场规模=总人口*人均用量*单价的测算模式,假设2019-2030年我国总人口每年增长0.5%;人均用量每年增长6%,并以3年下降1pct的节奏计算增速;单吨价格假设每年增长2%。测算2030年我国生活用纸市场规模约2712亿元。

        2013-2030年我国生活用纸行业规模及测算

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2015-2022年我国生活用纸占全球比重

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            美国市场生活用纸集中度远高于国内市场,金佰利、宝洁、科氏工业三家在厕纸市场瓜分了59%的份额,在纸巾市场占有率则达到61.2%。随着我国经济的发展,对生活品质要求的提升将逐步带动消费者的品牌诉求增强,龙头企业的集中度有较大的提升空间,若未来我国生活用纸行业能够达到类似美国市场的集中度,则前四家头部品牌中,有望实现20%以上的市场占有率。

        美国厕纸CR3达到59%

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        美国纸巾CR3=61.2%

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            对标美国消费品龙头企业和国内生活用纸企业营业开支情况发现,美国消费品龙头,如宝洁、金佰利等,伴随行业格局逐步企稳和竞争形势好转,企业营业开支/营业收入比重均有企稳回升甚至下行趋势。但近年来,国内生活用纸行业处于竞争较为激烈的市场环境中,企业费用支出均有增加。为争夺营销和渠道资源,企业的费用率提升压缩着盈利能力,改善空间较为明显。

        中美快消品龙头营业支出/营业收入对比

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2019-2025年中国生活用纸行业市场竞争现状及未来发展趋势研究报告

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