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        2018年日本烟草市场发展现状分析:偏好加热不燃烧,IQOS独占鳌头[图]

        2019年09月25日 14:20:59字号:T|T

            自2009年至2018年,全球烟草消费量呈现下降态势。截止2018年,根据调查数据显示,约5.4万亿的传统烟草被消费,全球销售额约7000亿美元。自2012年起,全球的传统烟草消费总额呈现每年约1%-3%的下降趋势,从2012年顶峰的6.1万亿逐年下跌至2018年的5.4万亿。

            日本传统烟草消费总量与全球占比走低。日本是全球的第5大烟草消费市场,2018年日本卷烟烟草消费约1514亿卷,占全球传统烟草消费量的2.85%。自2009起,受监管与社会因素影响日本烟草消费量持续逐年走低。日本传统烟草占全球传统烟草消费量的比率也从2009年的3.99%跌落至2019年的2.85%。预计在未来全球传统烟草销售总量,日本占全球传统烟草消费量比率将会继续走弱。

        2009-2018年日本烟草消费总量及全球占比率

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            截止2018年,根据调查数据显示,日本吸烟率为17.89%,并且呈现逐年下降的趋势。日本近十年吸烟率下降速率排名全球前十,2010年至2011年,吸烟率下降速率一度达到12.77%。2016年,卷烟销量下降5%,销售额下降3%,吸烟人口持续减少迫使卷烟价格上涨,连同政府实施的更加严格的法规,是导致日本卷烟销量整体下滑的原因。

            在传统卷烟销售整体下滑的大背景下,加热不燃烧电子烟销量逆势上扬,全球销售量快速增长。2017年加热不燃烧烟草制品销售额约50亿美元,较16年增长138%。根据JTI2019年Q2季报出货量计算,2019年加热不可燃型电子烟(HNB)全球销售额已经达到约160亿美元。加热不可燃烧型电子烟(HNB)还会持续快速增长,预计在2021年,全球销售额可以达到290亿美元。

        2016-2021年全球电子烟销售量及增长率预测

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        日本电子烟发展历程

        2007年
        日本消费者
        信息网络系统收到电
        子烟相关咨询。
        2010年
        厚生劳动省发布《
        关于含有尼古丁电子香烟的
        危害防治措施》,禁止贩卖
        含有尼古丁的烟油及制品。
        2013年
        东京获得
        2020年奥运会举办权
        ,民众戒烟意识,政
        府管控举措加强。
        2013年
        JT在日本
        发布Ploom加热不燃
        烧烟草,但未取得
        市场青睐。
        2014年
        菲莫旗
        下IQOS在日本名
        古屋试点发售,
        大获成功。
        2016年
        IQOS在日本全国
        推行,会场份额由2016年
        的1%迅速提升至2019Q2的
        16.8%。
        2017年
        英美旗下glo在
        日本全国推行,至2018Q1
        市场份额已扩张至4.2%。
        2018年6月
        日烟在全
        国范围推行Ploom
        Tech,销售量达到
        28亿卷。

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            加热不可燃性电子烟在日本烟草市场增持迅速。根据调查数据显示,加热不燃烧产品在2018年占日本烟草市场20.9%。日本烟草公司表示,预计到2020年底,电子烟市场将占据日本国内市场的30%。

        2017-2020年加热不燃烧产品日本烟草市场占有率及预测

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            一、市场格局

            日本传统烟草市场主要市场份额由日本烟草公司,菲莫国际与英美烟草日本分公司占据。日本烟草公司日本传统烟草市场处于市场领导者地位,占据整个卷烟消费量的61%;菲莫国际占据市场份额为24%;英美烟草所占市场份额为13%。日本烟草行业原为国有经营,自日本烟草公司成立以来,日本烟草市场开始对外国卷烟制造商开放。

            2016年在日本全国推行发售大获成功。17年末,在日本IQOS烟弹销量约235亿支,占日本卷烟销量比达13.9%。根据野村证券估计,截止2018年,IQOS占日本加热不燃烧市场份额的71.8%,英美烟草旗下glo所占市场份额为20.1%,日本烟草旗下PloomTech占8.1%。2019年,日本烟草公司推出PloomS与PloomTech+,加热不燃烧电子烟市占率提升至约10%。

        日本传统烟草市场主要竞争者与市场份额

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        日本加热不燃烧各品牌市场份额

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            二、传统卷烟税率vs.电子烟税率

            传统烟草是日本赋税率最高的商品之一。根据调查数据显示,日本卷烟产品价格包括了国家烟草税、地方烟草税、烟草特别税、消费税四种税金。其中国家烟草税为24.1%,地方烟草税为27.8%,烟草特别税为3.7%,消费税为7.4%,四种税金相加的赋税率达到63%。

            日本传统烟草税收稳定在2.1万亿日元的水平。2018年10月日本消费税由8%提至10%之后,IQOS、Glo和PloomTech的烟弹每盒均价分别提至490、460和490,三类烟弹烟草税分别为49%、36%和15%。

        日本传统烟草税构成

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        日本主要烟草品牌征收税率

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        监管政策制定

        2003年11月
        “烟草业务执法条例”被修订,内容包括规定关于烟草制品包装上所示
        与健康有关的注意事项的措词,从2005年7月起,所有在日本销售的烟草
        制品都需符合修订后的规定。
        2010年10月
        厚生劳动省发布《关于含有尼古丁电子香烟的危害防治措施》,禁
        止贩卖含有尼古丁的烟油及制品。蒸汽式电子烟在日本推行受阻。
        2018年12月
        日本财政部财政系统委员会烟草业务小组委编写《关
        于部分修正烟草商业法实施条例的部长条例(财务省
        令第4号)》。该条例要求更改所有烟草产品包装上的
        强制警告声明的描述和布局。它包括对加热烟草产品
        的强制警告声明,以及显示尼古丁和焦油的含量。从
        2020年4月1日起,所有的加热烟草产品和卷烟都将适
        用新的警告声明要求。
        2018年7月
        “健康促进法”修订,并将于2020年4
        月分阶段实施。在现有基础上,增强
        公共场所全面戒烟措施。

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2019-2025年中国加热不燃烧烟草制品市场前景分析及发展趋势预测报告

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