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        2019年上半年中国非洲猪瘟爆发情况及猪瘟对生猪行业产生的影响分析[图]

        2019年09月24日 13:55:29字号:T|T

            一、非洲猪瘟在我国爆发情况

            非洲猪瘟病毒在我国已形成较大污染面。2018年8月3日,我国首例非洲猪瘟疫情在辽宁沈阳爆发,非洲猪瘟至今已爆发一年。截至2019年7月31日,全国已有31个省份城市发生非洲猪瘟共150起疫情,其中家猪147起,野猪3起,全国累计扑杀生猪116万头。

            非洲猪瘟发生频次开始降低。2019年非洲猪瘟爆发频次较2018年明显下降,2018年爆发的5个月共发生99起,2019年1-7月共发生51起,月均保持个位数。

        我国非洲猪瘟月度爆发次数_截至2019年7月31日

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2020-2026年中国生猪养殖行业市场全景调查及投资价值预测报告

            二、非洲猪瘟的影响分析

            1.生猪产能大幅去化,生猪价格从区域分化到全国普涨

            受非洲猪瘟影响,根据数据,2019年1月起,我国生猪、能繁母猪存栏量快速下降,且降幅逐月加大。

        我国400个监测县生猪存栏及同比走势

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        我国400个监测县能繁母猪存栏及同比走势

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            二元母猪在非洲猪瘟爆发后快速上涨,预计二元母猪价格将维持高位或震荡上行。数据显示,二元母猪均价36.34元/千克,同比涨价22%。当前猪价上涨,加上生猪母猪存栏减少带动二元母猪需求,市场补栏情绪高涨,母猪供给紧张,预计二元母猪价格还将维持高位或震荡上行。

        各大中城市二元母猪销售价格

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            生猪价格从地区分化演变到全国普涨,华南、东北、华东涨幅最大,西南涨幅最小。从生猪价格演变来看,非洲猪瘟以来由于疫情使得生猪跨省调动遭到封锁,导致各地区猪价出现大幅度分化。

        不同地区生猪价格走势

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        各地生猪价格同比上涨幅度_2019-7-26

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            2.我国猪肉需求价格弹性低,猪企获益于供给短缺造成的猪肉涨价

            需求自价格弹性低的商品在供给减少时,价格提升幅度大于量的减少幅度,从而使得商品供给企业获得更高收入。

        需求自价格弹性低的商品在供给减少时价格提升幅度大

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            我国猪肉需求自价格弹性很低。由于我国传统饮食中,猪肉一直是居民餐桌中的必备菜品,属于必需消费品,因此猪肉的需求自价格弹性低。

        我国猪肉的需求自价格弹性(年度数)

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            3.非洲猪瘟提高行业进入门槛,加速行业集中度提升

            瘟疫背景下,全国生猪出栏下降,但上市猪企生猪销量逆市大涨。由于非洲猪瘟影响,2019年上半年全国生猪出栏31346万头,同比下降6.2%,但国内上市公司的出栏量却在高速增长。2019年1-7月,12家上市猪企生猪销量普遍大涨,共销售3038万头,同比增长13.5%。

            行业集中度加速提高,CR3的市场占有率从2018年的5.6%提升到2019年上半年的6.6%。龙头集中度提升,一方面是由于上市公司凭借资本优势,一直在进行产能扩张,补栏能力强,非洲猪瘟也只是减缓了增长趋势;另一方面是上市公司在技术和应对疫病的体系上都具有优势,能够将非洲猪瘟的损害降到最低。

        12家上市猪企2019年1-7月生猪销量数据

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        非洲瘟疫加快龙头集中度提升趋势

        数据来源:公共资料整理

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