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        2018年中国杂交水稻发展现状及未来机械化趋势分析[图]

        2019年09月24日 13:32:04字号:T|T

            一、中国杂交水稻种植概况

            我国种业一直面临产能过剩现象,自国家提出农业供给侧改革以来,我国稻谷行业种植面积出现缩减,对种子行业产生一定影响。当前国内的品种创新仍以杂交育种等常规技术为主,在整体水稻行情不太明朗的情况下,杂交水稻种子的供给依旧保持平稳增长。

            20世纪50年代以来,我国水稻育种技术不断精进,实现了三次重大的技术突破,分别是1959年的矮化育种、1973年的三系法杂交育种和1985年的两系法杂交育种。两系法通过利用光温敏不育系水稻受温度和光照的影响可以发生育性变化的特征,突破了三系法需要寻找特定的恢复系的局限,成为当前水稻杂种优势利用的主要途径。

        中国水稻育种技术三次重大突破

        -
        矮化育种
        三系法杂交育种
        两系法杂交育种
        时间
        1959年
               1973年
        1985年
        标志性事件
        矮杆籼稻品种“广场矮”
        《利用野败选育三系的进展》论文发表
        国家成功验证石松明的研究成果
        代表性品种
        广陆矮4号、桂朝2号
        汕优2号、汕优63
        两优培九
        影响
        水稻产量增产30%
        杂交稻产量在矮化育种的基础上在增产20%
        使杂交育种变得更简单

        资料来源:智研咨询整理

            受国家农业供给侧结构性改革的持续推进以及水稻最低收购价下调的影响,我国稻谷种植面积2016年以来开始缩减,2018年全国稻谷种植面积小幅减少,结构性调整加快,全年稻谷种植面积30189千公顷,折合4.53亿亩,较2017年减少837万亩,同比下降1.8%。

        2012-2018年中国稻谷播种面积统计

        资料来源:国家统计局

            尽管整体稻谷制种面积下滑,但是杂交水稻的制种面积依旧保持平稳增长。我国已经连续4年杂交水稻种植面积增长,2018年全国杂交水稻种植面积169万亩,相比2017年增加了2万亩。

        2013-2018年中国杂交水稻制种面积统计

        资料来源:农技推广中心、智研咨询整理

            2018年四川受暴雨和高温等影响,部分基地出现籽粒结实不饱满情况,江苏基地一些组合出现花期配合不佳现象;福建、江西部分秋制基地受到黑粉病等病害影响较大,但各基地灾情均轻于常年。2018年杂交水稻种子生产延续向制种优势区域集中态势,福建、湖南、四川、江苏、海南和江西六省制种面积共计147万亩,占全国杂交水稻制种面积的87%,比2017年增加9万亩、提高4个百分点。其中,福建的制种基地生产面积增长较快。

        2018年全国各区域杂交水稻制种面积占比情况

        资料来源:智研咨询整理

            二、中国杂交水稻种植现状

            2018年全国杂交水稻制种产量3.1亿公斤,相比2017年增长10.71%,2014年至今,全国杂交水稻制种产量规模已经增长34.78%。

        2013-2018年中国杂交水稻制种产量统计

        资料来源:农技推广中心、智研咨询整理

            2017年开始全国杂交水稻种子有效库存开始有所回升,2018年全国杂交水稻种子有效库存1.2亿公斤,相比2017年增长了0.2亿公斤。

        2013-2018年中国杂交水稻种子有效库存统计

        资料来源:农技推广中心、智研咨询整理

            从总供给看,2018年杂交水稻制种面积延续2014年来的增长态势,单产略高于2017年,新收获种子3.1亿公斤,加上期末有效库存1.2亿公斤,2019年可供种子总量4.3亿公斤左右,其中总需求量2.4亿公斤,期末余额1.9亿公斤,新组合1200种以上。

        2013-2018年中国杂交水稻余种量统计

        资料来源:农技推广中心、智研咨询整理

            根据智研咨询发布的《2019-2025年中国杂交水稻种子行业市场潜力分析及投资机会研究报告》数据显示:近些年,国内杂交水稻种植面积持续扩张,2018年,杂交水稻需种量增至2.4亿公斤,同比增长4.35%。

        2013-2018年中国杂交水稻需种量统计

        资料来源:农技推广中心、智研咨询整理

            三、中国杂交水稻种植趋势

            从我国目前杂交水稻的机械化制种发展的实际情况来看,虽颇有发展起色却还是存在着一些发展性阻碍,而在这些发展性阻碍当中,专用性的栽植机具方面的问题首当其冲,可谓是杂交水稻的机械化制种最为关键的发展屏障之一。

            基于我国目前多数的杂交水稻都是采用母本工厂化育秧来进行制种,在一定程度上,母本工厂化育秧这种制种的机械化技术极具复杂,对于种植技术及相关栽植机具的专业性要求相对较高。但是,由于我国目前专用性的栽植机具严重短缺,以至于母本工厂化育秧这种制种的机械化技术功能优势难以充分凸显出来。

            在母本工厂化育秧方面,也是我国杂交水稻的制种实现进一步机械化发展的主流趋势之一。 在这一方面主要在于母本工厂化育秧机械化技术的优化及改进上,科学选择秧田与育秧棚。 科学推算播种期,采取母本机插或母本直播的方式。

            依托此种插秧机采取先栽插父本, 再机械化栽插母本的方式。 栽插方式的确定根据播差期大小、品种、机具种类、种植习惯等因素有很多种模式,以提升母本工厂化育秧制种的机械化水准,提高杂交水稻的总产值,为我国杂交水稻事业的可持续性发展提供机械化技术支持。

            杂交水稻业面对着如今发展的态势,急需寻求着新的发展性突破,对于制种的机械化要求逐渐提高。因而,为了能够进一步促进我国杂交水稻的制种机械化发展,就需要对杂交水稻的制种机械化现状及未来的发展趋势,进行深度的分析与研究,进而能够切实地把握住杂交水稻的制种机械化发展主流,从而有效地开启我国杂交水稻的制种机械化发展的新篇章。 

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