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        2018年中国钴资源需求与供给发展趋势分析:预计2019-2020年全球钴需求分别为14.6万吨、16.6万吨[图]

        2019年09月20日 14:17:16字号:T|T

            一、钴需求

            2018年全球钴需求量13万吨,同比增长8.1%,其中新能源汽车对应的动力电池需求为1.8万吨,占比为14%。3C需求仍是最主要下游,2018年全球3C钴需求量6.4万吨,占比49%。

        2018年钴需求占比

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            2019年二季度国内手机出货量同比增长0.4%,结束近三年的持续下滑,考虑到一季度春节影响,环比采用2018年四季度数据,则2019年二季度手机出货量环比仅下滑0.4%,相比于2019Q1及2018Q4的同比下滑11.9%和11.7%有明显改善,手机出货量最差时点已过!新能源乘用车需求持续增长,2019年二季度国内新能源乘用车产量同比增长44%,虽然三季度由于补贴退坡乘用车销量增速可能有所下滑,但趋势上新能源汽车需求仍将持续增长。

        国内手机出货量企稳(万部)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        国内新能源乘用车需求持续增长(辆)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            假设2019-2020年全球新能源汽车销量分别为339万辆、521万辆,则对应的2019-2020年新能源汽车用钴量将分别达到3.1万吨、4.6万吨。

        2015-2020年动力电池需求及预测

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            2019年全球3C钴需求为近五年首次出现下滑,2020年5G换机潮将驱动3C需求再次增长。根据调查数据显示2018年智能手机、平板电脑、笔记本电脑出货量均有所下滑,但充电宝及电动工具需求依然正增长,此消彼长对应2018年3C钴需求量为6.5万吨,同比增长0.07%,随着充电宝及电动工具逐渐采用三元电池替代钴酸锂电池,3C钴需求有所下滑,预计2019-2020年全球3C产品钴需求量分别为6.4万吨、6.46万吨,需求增速分别为-1.5%、1%。

        2015-2020年3C钴锂需求及预测

        数据来源:公开资料整理

        2015-2020年3碳酸锂需求及预测

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            预计2019-2020年全球钴需求分别为14.6万吨、16.6万吨,需求增速分别为12.2%、13.5%。

        2015-2020年钴总需求(万吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            二、钴供给

            2019-2020年钴新增供给中嘉能可分别占76%和68%。随着刚果金多数民采矿钴企业停产,2019年钴供给主要增量仅来自嘉能可KCC钴销量3000吨(产量约25000吨),欧亚资源RTR销量6000吨(产量8000-10000吨),2020年最大增量为嘉能可KCC的大量销售,预计2020年KCC钴产销量均将达到30000吨。

        2019-2020年供给释放较多(吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            预计2018-2020年全球钴供给分别为14.6万吨、15万吨、19万吨(原预测为14.6万吨、16万吨、20.3万吨),增速分别为12%、3%、26.5%。

        2019-2020年供给释放较多(万吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            预计2019年钴供需过剩情况得到大幅缓解!过剩量大幅下滑至4000吨,考虑到2019-2020年钴新增供给中嘉能可分别占76%和68%,嘉能可钴产品的产销策略将对钴行业供需关系及价格产生重大影响。

            2019年8月2日国内长江有色电解钴成交价格23.5万元/吨,上海有色网的金川、赞比亚品牌电解钴价格22.4万元/吨,较高点68万元/吨下跌了67%,目前国内电解钴价格对应的国内电解钴冶炼厂吨毛利为6000元/吨(考虑库存跌价损失),为2015年初以来新低,扣除三费等费用已经出现亏损。如不考虑冶炼厂库存跌价损失,则目前采购氢氧化钴现货加工成电解钴不含税成本约为16.4万元/吨,单吨毛利约3.4万元/吨,扣除三费及所得税费用单吨净利润约1万元/吨,利润较为稀薄。

        2015-2019.1电解钴冶炼毛利快速下滑(元/吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            钴产品价格快速下跌导致冶炼厂出现亏损,产能出现收缩。2019年1-6月国内钴产品总产量(金属量)4.2万吨,同比下降6%,1-6月国内电解钴产量4021吨,同比-2.5%。

            2019年1-6月国内钴盐(硫酸钴为主)总产量1.43万吨,同比-11.7%,1-6月国内氧钴产量2.39万吨,同比-3.9%。

        1-6月钴产品金属量产量同比-6%(吨)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2019-2025年中国钴行业市场调查及发展趋势研究报告

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