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        2019年1-7月中国发电量、用电量分析及2019年中国用电量及用电量结构预测[图]

        2019年09月20日 14:16:05字号:T|T

            2019年1-2季度全国发电量有所增长,2019年7月全国发电量为6573.1亿千瓦时,同比增长0.6%。2019年1-7月全国发电量为40300.5亿千瓦时,同比增长3%。

            2019年1-7月全国发电量及增长情况

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            2019年1-7月全国发电量统计数据

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            人均用电量偏低,电力需求仍有提升空间。近年来随着GDP增长放缓,我国用电增速下移。从人均用电量的角度来看,我国2017年仅达到4537.62千瓦时/人,远低于美国(11875.7)、韩国(10061.56)、法国(7155.47)等发达国家。中远期看,我国电力需求仍有较大提升空间。

            我国全社会用电量及增速

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            我国人均用用电仍处于较低位置,未来增长空间可观。现阶段,我国经济总体处于工业化中后期、城镇化快速推进期,但人均用电量等指标距离中等发达国家仍存在差距,2018年我国人均用电量约为4900千瓦时,仅为日本2018年水平的五分之三,美国的五分之二。随着我国经济高质量发展,特别是制造业的创新发展,大数据等战略性新兴产业快速发展,居民生活的持续改善,以及电动汽车、清洁取暖等电能替代都将为用电增长注入新动能。预计2035年我国全社会用电量约12万亿千瓦时,人均用电量约8500千瓦时。

            2018年全球人均用电量对比(千瓦时)

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            用电量稳健增长,核电优势显著,利用小时保持高位

            二产用电刚性增长+服务业快速发展驱动用量持续或许攀升。未来三年,高新技术产业和高端制造业将带动二产用电继续刚性增长,服务业快速发展驱动三产和居民生活用电仍将保持快速增长。2019年,全社会用电量同比增长5.6%,用电量达7.3万亿千瓦时;2020年,全社会用电同比增长5.0%,用电量达7.6万亿千瓦时;2021年,全社会用电同比增长4.7%,用电量达8.0万亿千瓦时。

            2019-21年全国用电量预测

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            2019-21年全国用电量结构预测

        数据来源:公开资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2020-2026年中国泛在电力物联网行业产业运营现状及投资方向分析报告》 

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