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        空调行业均价下降概率大,能效标准变革带来优胜劣汰

        2019年09月05日 17:15:58字号:T|T

            空调作为白电品类,撑起了家电三巨头的市场地位,今年以来已是暗潮汹涌,6月格力电器公开举报奥克斯产品不合格,时隔两个多月,格力发半年报之际,奥克斯与格力高管隔空喊话,角力再度升级。半年报显示,格力和美的空调业务营收达到793.25亿元和714.39亿元,双方营收差距从去年的近120亿元缩至不足80亿元。

            空调行业均价下降概率大
            源于今年6·18空调大促前夕的格力与奥克斯之争,背后是空调行业愈加激烈的竞争。回顾上半年空调市场营销情况,国内家用空调零售量增长1.5%,零售额下降1.4%;拆分来看,线上渠道销量和销售额同比增长20%左右,线下渠道销量和销售额同比下跌约10%。

            根据半年报,格力空调业务上半年营收793.25亿元,同比增长4.62%,相比之下,美的空调业务表现亮眼,上半年暖通空调营收714.39亿元,同比增长11.84%。而2018年上半年,两者空调营收还有近120亿元的差距,分别为758.20亿元和638.74亿元。

            记者注意到,格力电器2018年财报显示,空调营收1556.82亿元,当年,海尔与美的空调业务营收之和不及格力,其空调营收与净利润依旧遥遥领先。但进入2019年,行业竞争日趋激烈。

            2019年Q1家用空调线下市场零售额排名,格力、美的和海尔分别为35.4%、30.2%和12.7%,格力与美的可谓“贴身肉搏”。但格力在线上市场表现不如奥克斯,更不及美的,16.3%的份额,与奥克斯差距拉大。

            美的集团空调内销降价促销,份额提升明显。市场担忧价格战影响盈利能力,但可以看到空调盈利能力良好,消费电器营业利润率明显提升,价格战的传言不可信。

            值得关注的是,海尔智家的空调业务下滑明显,上半年营收179.51亿元,同比下滑6.55%。此外,上半年,空调市场第二阵营玩家营收也纷纷下滑,包括长虹美菱以及拥有海信与科龙两大品牌的海信家电。

            格力、美的、海尔、海信等构成的前十位品牌,2018年度市场占有率总和达到95.17%。行业TOP3品牌格力、美的、海尔实现逆势增长,市场占有率总和71.17%。上半年龙头企业之间的竞争加剧,市场集中度继续提升,同时跨界品牌份额稳定提升,分流其他品牌的市场份额。此外,国家发布新的空调能效标准,厂家逐步消化部分低端机产品;龙头企业实现年度目标,下半年经营策略可能会调整,下半年空调均价下降概率大。

            能效标准变革带来优胜劣汰
            线下价格调整,其背后是库存走高的行业共同困境。布局新冷年,摆在厂商面前两大问题是,一方面是行业高企的库存拉响了警报,另一方面是房地产增速放缓抑制空调新增需求,城市市场进入更新换代时期,需求释放慢,整个行业跌入下行的通道,面临着巨大库存消化压力。

            从市场现状来看,增速呈下滑态势,换新是带动空调销售的重要动力。2019冷年行业整体降幅极有可能在10%左右。从库存上来看,2019冷年空调行业年度整体库存将首次站上5000万台关口,年底实施的新能效标准,无疑库存进一步高企。

            据了解,5月下旬空调能效新标准大的框架和内容都已经基本审定通过,将于今年年底正式颁布。与现有的能效指标相比,新能效标准最大的特点是将定频和变频空调统一采用APF标准,在统一平台上进行考核。

            值得一提的是,如果新标准实施,目前现行的定频空调的一级能效标准将降为新标准的4级,定频空调的二级能效标准将降为5级入门水平,都属于新标准下的非节能产品。并且由于定速空调被确认为低能效产品,初步分为两步淘汰,2022年1月1日完全淘汰定速空调。

            随着空调新能效标准进入门槛进行再次提升,这将意味着有一大批不符合能效要求的空调面临着退市的命运,厂商极有可能会降价处理这些非节能的产品。由于现有的变频空调一级能效水平为新标准下的二级能效水平,现有的变频二级能效水平为新标准下三级能效水平。以此类推,市场上现有主流变频三级能效空调将被列为新能效的4级能效水平即非节能空调。 

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