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        2018年中国家具行业需求规模约为8585亿元,家居内销市场的中长期景气无忧[图]

        2019年08月21日 13:16:50字号:T|T

            随着人均可支配收入增加,国内家居消费有望提升。2017年美国家居市场规模为2750亿美元,人均消费约5800元/年,中国家居市场规模约1.2万亿,人均消费约857元/年,虽然短期受到地产波动影响,但长期看国内家居是消费品属性,还有很大增长空间。对家居企业而言,未来不仅市场规模会保持增长,而且可以通过场景化销售、持续拓展品类、赋能经销商来进行泛家居行业的整合,实现收入和利润的大幅增长。

        中国拥有全球最大的软体家具产值

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2019-2025年中国木家具行业运营态势及未来前景预测报告

        人均可支配收入持续增长

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        我国软体家具产值不断增长

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            家具行业需求与商品房销售面积有关,房地产行业销售火爆也带动了家具行业销售收入的增长。2018年,受累于“史上最严”房地产调控政策、中美贸易摩擦等因素,商品房销售面积增速开始下滑,全年商品房销售面积约17.14亿平方米,增速下滑至1.60%,按照每平米500元的家具购置需求,2018年家具行业需求规模约为8585亿元。整体来看,随着新一代年轻人步入社会,商品房销售是刚性需求,而房屋置业之后的家具更换也将不断带来家具行业需求,从而提升家具行业的市场规模。

        2012-2018年商品房销售面积及增长情况

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            2018年1-4月限额以上家具零售额655亿元,同比增长9.00%,与上年同期增速有所下降;其中,4月份限额以上家具零售额174亿元,同比增长8.10%,低于上年同期13.90%的增速。虽受到地产调控压制,但家居零售增长仍基本与社消增长持平。在新型城镇化、居家消费升级、渠道与品类渗透等多因素驱动下,家居内销市场的中长期景气无忧。

        2018年1-4月限额以上家居零售额累计同比增长9.00%

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            行业格局分散,未来集中度有望提升。2017年家具制造行业企业营业收入有9113亿元,目前行业的集中度很低。其中渠道分散是一个很重要的原因,过去家具卖场和地产商存在许多地方品牌,而未来随着房地产行业的整合进行,房地产行业集中度会进一步提升,全国性卖场的渠道铺设,未来家具制造业将迎来变革,拥有优质品牌和设计的企业将会脱颖而出。

        家具制造企业数较多,行业有待整合

        数据来源:公共资料整理

        房地产行业市场集中度逐步上升

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            家具产品的需求主要集中于一线城市,2018年一线城市家具消费占全国比重的47.25%,远高于其他城市,一线城市消费者是家具消费的主力人群,二线城市和三线城市远不及一线城市的家具消费需求,二线城市家具消费仅占全国比重的16.48%,三线城市更少,仅占全国比重的5.95%。

        2018年家具行业消费者地区分布

        数据来源:公共资料整理

            随着经济全球化的快速发展,家具产业供应中心逐渐向发展中国家转移。家具市场发展现状分析,经过多年的积累和发展,我国家具产业在生产规模、生产效率、生产成本等方面的优势逐渐显现,国际家具贸易地位不断提升,进一步发展成为全球家具产品供应中心。

        我国家具出口额

        数据来源:公共资料整理

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