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        2017年中国汽车行业发展趋势及市场前景预测【图】

        2016年12月26日 09:30:11字号:T|T

            在购置税减半(5%税率)政策刺激下,2016年前11月汽车销量增速超过14个点,景气度处于较高水平。财政部已经出台“将减征1.6升及以下小排量乘用车购置税的政策延长至2017年底,减按7.5%征收”的政策,预计2017年汽车行业景气度整体依然向好。

        2017年汽车行业景气度依然向好

        主要细分领域
        2017年度景气度变化
        乘用车
        偏向好。相比2016年,有所回落
        商用车
        偏向好。重卡预计维持到2017H1,轻卡或是亮点
        新能源汽车
        向好。相比2016年,边际改善明显
        智能网联
        向好。相比2016年,边际改善较好
        汽车后市场
        向好。相比2016年,边际改善较

        资料来源:公开资料

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2017-2022年中国汽车行业发展趋势及投资战略研究报告

        未来一年政策梳理

        细分领域
        已出台和将出台对汽车行业影响较大的主要政策
        传统乘用车
        1.财政部,自2017年1月1日起至12月31日止,对购置1.6升及以下排量的乘用车减按7.5%的税率征收车辆购置税
        中重卡
        1.2017年1月1日起,环保部,中重型及轻型商用车必须实施国五排放标准
        新能源汽车
        1.2016年底,工信部和财政部等,新能源汽车财政最新补贴政策
        2.2017年初,工信部,新的一批《新能源汽车推广应用推荐车型目录》
        3.2017年下半年,工信部,《企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理暂行办法》正式稿件出台
        智能网联
        1.2017年上半年,中国汽车技术研究中心, CN-CAP征求意见稿
        2.2017年一季度,全球3GPP组织,LTE-V2X标准冻结事宜的讨论
        3.2017年一季度,通信标准委员会,提交国内LTE-V标准第一稿
        4.2017年一季度,联合国,推出自动驾驶标准
        汽车后市场
        1.2017年一季度,商务部,新版《汽车销售管理办法》正式稿件出台
        2.2017年一季度,发改委,《关于汽车业的反垄断指南》正式稿件出台
        3.2017年下半年,商务部等,新版《二手车流通管理办法》

        资料来源:公开资料

            预计2017年全球汽车销量稳健增长,中国依旧为全球市场主要增量来源。预计2017年中国汽车销量2981万辆(+7.6%),其中乘用车销量2610万辆(+8.1%),SUV销量1042万辆(+18%)。

        预计2017年全球汽车销量增速2%

        地区
        15年销量
        16年销量
        16YOY
        17销量预计
        17YOY
        中国
        2460
        2770
        12.6%
        2981
        7.6%
        美国
        1784
        1775
        -0.5%
        1828
        3.0%
        欧洲
        1420
        1519
        7.0%
        1580
        4.0%
        日本
        505
        490
        -3.0%
        504
        3.0%
        全球
        8969
        9282
        3.5%
        9467
        2.0%

        资料来源:公开资料

        预计2017年中国SUV销量有望超过1000万辆

        地区
        15年销量
        16年销量
        16YOY
        17销量预计
        17YOY
        轿车
        1172
        1207
        3.0%
        1231
        2.0%
        SUV
        622
        883
        42.0%
        1042
        18.0%
        MPV
        211
        253
        20.0%
        286
        13%
        交叉型乘用车
        110
        70
        -36.0%
        51
        -27.9%
        乘用车总计
        2115
        2414
        14.1%
        2610
        8.1%

        资料来源:公开资料

            相比2016年,商用车整体景气度维持,内部细分结构发生变化。2016年最大亮点是重卡,预计能持续到2017H1。展望2017年,连续三年低迷(受累国三升级国四)轻卡有望迎来周期复苏,而客车市场随着新能源客车负面影响见底,预计有望企稳。

        商用车整体及内部核心细分市场2017年销量预测

        车型
        15年销量
        16年销量
        16YOY
        17销量预计
        17YOY
        商用车
        345.4
        356.5
        3.20%
        371.0
        4.09%
        货车
        285.6
        306.0
        7.15%
        319.8
        4.51%
        其中:重卡
        55.0
        74.0
        34.55%
        78
        6.00%
        其中:轻卡
        155.9
        151.0
        -3.16%
        159
        5.00%
        客车
        59.8
        50.5
        -15.67%
        51.3
        1.57%
         
        资料来源:公开资料

            2016年年初开始的骗补核查,严重拖累了新能源汽车的产销放量,全年产量预计48万。随着16年底新补贴政策落地,17年初全新的推广目录出台,明年新能源汽车政策预计平稳,有望恢复快速放量。预计2017年国内新能源汽车产量66万辆(+38%),乘用车47万辆(+47%),客车9万辆(-18%),专用车10万辆(+100%)。

        预计2017年新能源汽车产量66万辆

        资料来源:公开资料

        2017年新能源汽车产量结构预测

        产量/万辆
        2015
        2016E
        2017E
        17同比
        新能源乘用车
        20.6
        32
        47
        47%
        新能源客车
        12.3
        11
        9
        -18%
        纯电动专用车
        5
        5
        10
        100%
        合计
        38
        48
        66
        38%
        其中:EV
        29
        38
        54
        41%
        PHEV
        9
        10
        12
        25%

        资料来源:公开资料

            智能驾驶L1预警功能渗透率从2015年平均3%上升到2016年平均5%,2018年CN-CAP新规催化,各大车厂均积极部署辅助驾驶功能,未来两年将带来智能车型的集中投放。车联网由2015年7%上升到2016年接近10%,随着车联网模式的升级将迎来渗透加速。

        智能驾驶各个层级渗透率预测

        资料来源:公开资料

        车联网历史渗透率及预测

        资料来源:公开资料

            在新车业务触底反弹前提下,三大新兴业务(维修+二手车+融资租赁)在“汽车保有量扩大+车龄快速上涨+信贷消费理念流行”均进入黄金发展时期。2017年政策上有望进一步突破。

        预计2020年我国二手车交易额可达1.1万亿

        资料来源:公开资料

        预计2020年养护维修市场总规模可达1.7万亿元

        资料来源:公开资料

        预计2020年我国乘用车融资租赁总规模可达1400亿元

        资料来源:公开资料

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