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        2017年中国家电行业发展趋势及市场规模预测【图】

        2016年12月15日 14:42:35字号:T|T

            随着渗透率接近饱和,国内冰箱、洗衣机等传统产品销量进入瓶颈期,销量增速较2011年以前有较大幅度下滑,甚至出现负增长。对于家电企业来讲,传统业务未来的增长点更多转向渠道优化带来的市场份额提升与产品升级带来盈利能力提高。

        2006-2016年中国家用空调销量及增速

        资料来源:公开资料

        2006-2016年中国冰箱销量及增速

        资料来源:公开资料

        2006-2016年中国洗衣机销量及增速

        资料来源:公开资料

        2006-2016年中国家用油烟机销量及增速

        资料来源:公开资料

            相关报告:智研咨询发布的《2017-2022年中国家电市场运行态势及投资战略研究报告

            据国家统计局统计数据,我国城镇与农村居民人均可支配收入近年均保持稳定增长,也与近年国内居民消费能力不断提升相得益彰。恩格尔系数也在逐年下降,表明可用于非食品方面的收入占比增加。结构方面,农村与城镇之间的恩格尔系数差距越来越小;降幅方面,农村地区下降幅度更大,由1995年的58.60%下降到2013年的37.70%,而城镇地区由1995年的50.10%下降到2013年的35%。

        我国城镇与农村人均可支配收入逐年增加,恩格尔系数逐年下降

        资料来源:公开资料

            2015年我国农村地区空调与油烟机每百户保有量与城镇地区差距较大,分别相差76台和54台,而彩电产品在农村和城镇的保有量均超过100台,且相差不大。我们判断未来农村市场中传统家电需求量从大到小排序为,空调油烟机洗衣机冰箱彩电。

        2015年我国城镇与农村家庭平均每百户耐用消费品拥有量对比(单位:台)

        资料来源:公开资料

        我国城镇家庭平均每百户耐用消费品拥有量走势(单位:台)

        资料来源:公开资料

        我国农村家庭平均每百户耐用消费品拥有量走势

        资料来源:公开资料

            我国家电市场中线上渠道销售收入保持40%以上的高增速。主要的家电经销商之一苏宁云商,近几年也在不断发力电商渠道布局,今年前三季度线上收入同比增长65.49%。我们预计随着更多的家电企业在线上销售渠道发力以及物流配送体系的进一步完善,未来电商渠道销售收入仍将保持较快增长,电商渠道的较高毛利率也将带动公司业绩的提升。

        2011-2014年中国家电市场销售规模

        资料来源:公开资料

        苏宁云商线上收入保持较快速增长

        资料来源:公开资料

            目前,传统三大白电产品均在节能和智能方面不断升级,其中2015年国内空调变频产品渗透率已经达到54.11%。我们认为未来空调产品将主要在智能方面进行突破。

        2015年空调、冰箱、洗衣机内销产品中变频产品比例

        资料来源:公开资料

        中国市场变频产品历年渗透率走势

        资料来源:公开资料

            2016年10月1日,国家标准化管理委员会发布的新版冰箱能效标准GB 12021.2-2015《家用电冰箱耗电量限定值及能效等级》正式实施。新能效标准对家用冰箱的能效等级进行了修订。按照新标准,原来1级能效冰箱将降到新标准的2级或者3级,市场上能效等级1级的冰箱占比将从原来的85%下降到5%左右,2级能效的冰箱占比将减至10%-20%。新标准实施后,部分高耗能产品将被淘汰,市场整体销售的电冰箱能效水平将提高10%左右。

        家用电冰箱耗电量限定值及能效等级标准变化

        能效等级
        冷藏冷冻冰箱
        其他类型
        旧标准(2008)
        新标准(2015)
        旧标准(2008)
        新标准(2015)
        1
        ≤40%
        ≤25%
        ≤50%
        ≤45%
        2
        40%≤50%
        25%≤35%
        50%≤60%
        45%≤55%
        3
        50%≤60%
        35%≤50%
        60%≤70%
        55%≤65%
        4
        60%≤70%
        50%≤60%
        70%≤80%
        65%≤75%
        5
        70%≤80%
        60%≤70%
        80%≤90%
        75%≤85%

        资料来源:公开资料

            与此同时,国家不断提高对家电产品节能环保要求,中国家用电器协会每年对家电产业技术路线图进行修订,2015年协会根据技术现状,对2020年产业目标进行了修正,并新增了2025年目标。其中,对于冰箱变频压缩机的使用占比有更具体目标,即到2020年变频压缩机使用占比达到30%,2025年达到50%。

        家用电冰箱2015年版路线图节能目标

        类别
        2020年较2015年
        2025年较2020年
        冰箱整机
        能效水平提高25%
        能效水平提高12%
        定频压缩机
        COP值提高5%
        COP值提高5%
        变频压缩机
        使用占比达到30%
        使用占比达到50%
        冰箱绝热性能
        平均提高5%
        平均提高5%
        冰箱系统
        优化10%
        优化5%

        资料来源:公开资料

            相较于波轮洗衣机,滚筒洗衣机具有对衣物磨损小、省水等特点。今年前三季我国滚筒洗衣机产量占洗衣机总产量的比重已经达到30.97%,滚筒洗衣机内销量占比也超过30%,达到30.19%。

        滚筒洗衣机产量占洗衣机总产量比重逐年提升

        资料来源:公开资料

        中国市场滚筒洗衣机渗透率逐年提高

        资料来源:公开资料

            在价格区间分布方面,滚筒洗衣机在2500元以上的区间内零售量占比较大。中怡康今年1-10月份统计数据显示,在3000元以上的洗衣机产品中,滚筒洗衣机占比超过86%。今年各个价格段中,滚筒洗衣机占比均有提升,其中在1500-2000区间段的占比提升幅度最大,由2015年同期的25.64%快速提升至41.08%,增加了15.44个百分点,我们认为随着滚筒洗衣机价格进一步下降,预计未来滚筒洗衣机市场占有率将稳步提升,并有望取代波轮洗衣机成为行业主导品类。

        2015年1-10月不同价格段内滚筒与波轮零售量占比

        资料来源:公开资料

        2016年1-10月不同价格段内滚筒与波轮零售量占比

        资料来源:公开资料

            2014年和2015年我国小家电市场规模分别增长11%和12%,预计2016~2020年间仍能保持每年12%左右的增速,2020年预计小家电市场总规模达到4,608亿元,小家电行业未来发展空间巨大。

        2012-2020年我国小家电市场规模及趋势预测

        资料来源:公开资料

            产品升级、品类扩张和外延式发展成为最新的小家电行业发展趋势。伴随着80、90 后年轻消费者的崛起,新生代用户成为市场增长主力军,其追求时尚科技、重视潮流个性化的消费特点将推动小家电市场高端、智能化发展。此外,由于技术、品牌、渠道等壁垒的存在,外延并购成为切入小家电行业以及扩张产品品类的重要方式。

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