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        1月份至7月份,5家上市险企保费合计为1.57万亿元,同比增长8.7%

        2019年08月16日 17:25:49字号:T|T

            8月15日晚间,中国人寿与中国人保披露了今年前7个月的保费收入情况,至此,A股五大上市险企的保费数据悉数出炉。据《统计,1月份至7月份,中国人寿、中国平安、中国太保、新华保险、中国人保这5家上市险企保费合计为1.57万亿元,同比增长8.7%。

            具体来看,中国人寿1月份至7月份保费为4051亿元,同比增长5.1%;中国平安为4994.5亿元,同比增长9.4%;中国太保为2282.89亿元,同比增长8.2%;新华保险为824.6亿元,同比增长8.6%;中国人保为3558.42亿元,同比增长12.2%。不难看出,人保与平安增速相对较快。

            值得关注的是,受益于基本面向好,券商纷纷看好保险股。据东方财富chioce数据显示,近6个月,券商发布的101份研报中,有97次推荐保险股“增持”及“买入”。

            从A股五大上市险企经营层面来看,受益于产品、渠道转型成效显现,投资收益大涨,减税效果显著等因素影响,今年以来,上市险企基本面持续向好。

            从中国人寿来看,其2019年中期归母净利润预增189亿元-222亿元至353亿元-386亿元,同比大增115%-135%,其中,第一季度贡献260亿元,同比增长92.6%;第二季度贡献预计为93亿元-126亿元,同比增长2.22倍-3.36倍。

            华创证券分析师洪锦屏表示,中国人寿今年以来新业务、人力、投资等业绩表现相对突出,第二季度新单增速在高基数下出现了一定回落,但新业务价值率同比有一定程度提升,预期NBV增速在15%-20%左右,下半年国寿新单压力相对较小。

            中国平安在8月15日晚间公布的半年报数据显示,上半年期归母净利润为976.76亿元,同比增长68.1%。群益证券(香港)近期发布的研报认为,平安集团保费端表现好于同业,投资端迎来边际放缓趋势。今年手续费新政实施,进一步增厚平安净利润。6月份以来,中国平安回购计划在紧密进行。公司在科技方面表现在同业中较为突出,随着公司在科技领域不断投入及应用,相信其对传统金融业务也能起到一定的反哺作用。

            从中国太保来看,申万宏源证券非银团队认为,税费结转加强利润弹性,太保产险对集团业绩和估值的贡献有望进一步提升。受手续费税收政策变化影响,财产险、人身险的手续费抵扣上限由原先的15%、10%(含)提升至18%,测算下2018年太保寿险税费结转约35亿元、太保财险税费结转约13亿元。

            从新华保险来看,长城证券分析师刘文强认为过往转型成绩显著。新华保险转型以来最重要的变化,即体现在业务结构的转型、保费结构的转型以及价值的提升。

            从中国人保来看,华创证券研报认为,2019年随着监管对费用竞争的收紧,价格竞争造成行业车险亏损现象得到一定程度遏制,市场份额进一步向龙头集中。另外,人保人身险业务结构有明显的优化,价值转型可期。

            综合来看,券商认为保险股的投资价值主要有以下几大因素:在保费端,随着转型持续深入,今年上半年上市险企推动保障型业务,为未来利润增长带来后劲;在投资端,随着今年上半年权益市场的上涨,险企投资业务收益有望大幅提升;政策层面,随着保险业减税降费政策落地,上市险企利润有望大幅增厚。

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