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        美国今年上半年GDP总量为10.6万亿美元,中国GDP占美国的62%

        2019年07月29日 17:30:57字号:T|T

            终于,美国近日公布了今年二季度的经济增速。受到全球经济增长放缓和贸易的影响,美国第二季度增速放缓,相比一季度有所下滑,但高于预期。
        根据美国商务部公布的数据,美国在今年二季度的GDP年化增长率为2.1%,今年一季度年化增长率为3.2%,修正后为3.1%,所以二季度相较一季度下滑了1个百分点,增速放缓,创下近两年新低。

            但是二季度增速高于预期,此前美国相关机构预测今年二季度增速为1.8%,道琼斯经济学家认为是2%,没想到直接达到了2.1%,远超过市场预期。

            同时,美国今年二季度的GDP实际增速达到了2.3%,较一季度有所下滑。要知道今年一季度美国GDP实际增速高达3.1%,根据市场普遍分析,美国二季度经济下滑是必然的,但是经济增速却要高于预期。所以,2019年上半年美国GDP实际增速达到了2.5%(季调后)。

            在今年二季度,真正推动美国经济增长的是个人消费支出,环比年增长4.3%,达到近四年来最高水平。在私人投资方面,环比下降5.5%,创下近四年来最差水平。此外,企业支出也实现了一定增长,对经济有推动作用。

            中国、美国上半年GDP

            从GDP总量来看,今年一季度美国GDP总量达到了5.26万亿美元,6月份修正为5.27万亿美元;二季度美国GDP总量为5.33万亿美元(季调后),所以2019年上半年美国GDP总量就达到了10.6万亿美元。

            那么中国呢?根据国家统计局的数据显示,今年上半年我国GDP总量为45.09万亿元人民币,GDP实际增速为6.3%,按照上半年人民币与美元的平均汇率计算,我国上半年GDP总量为6.65万亿美元。

            那么,今年上半年我国GDP占美国的62%,美国GDP是我国的1.6倍。如果今年全年我国GDP总量达到15万亿美元,那么我国GDP占美国的比重将接近70%,要知道去年我国GDP占美国的比重为66%,今后这一比例还将继续提升。

            美国经济是否会衰退

            国际货币基金组织(IMF)于近日上调了对于美国今年GDP增速的预测,在最新《世界经济展望》报告中,IMF预测美国今年GDP实际增速为2.6%,而今年4月份的预测数据为2.3%,如今上调了0.3个百分点,说明IMF对于今年美国经济还是持有一定的乐观态度。

            根据路透社的报道称,穆迪分析高级经济学家Ryan Sweet在接受媒体采访时认为,美国经济陷入衰退的可能性不大。而工银国际经济学家程实认为,虽然美国经济基本面相对稳定,但是其边际增长的趋势在下降,正在变弱,可能今年下半年至明年这种下降会一直持续。

            对此,我认为美国经济短期内衰退的可能性不是很大,但是从长远来看必然是由强到弱的趋势。目前,受到全球经济增长放缓和贸易摩擦的影响,美国的投资及出口均在下滑,仅靠私人消费支出来拉动经济增长是不长久的。

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